Will Bayern Munich and Chelsea reach the final?

Pep Guardiola and Manchester City have a discouraging route to the club’s first Champions League final after a draw in the quarter-finals and semi-finals between Premier League leaders Borussia Dortmund and the winners of the clash between Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain.

With UEFA paving the way for the final in Istanbul with both quarter-finals and semi-finals, the chance of Liverpool repeating their 2005 Champions League success at Ataturk Stadium depends on Jurgen Klopp’s side beating Real. Madrid in the round of 16, before facing the winners. of the Chelsea-Porto tie. Before winning the Champions League in 2005, Liverpool beat Chelsea in the semi-finals with the infamous “ghost goal” from Luis Garcia.

– UCL draw: Real Madrid vs. Liverpool, Bayern Vs. PSG
– Stream ESPN FC Daily to ESPN + (US only)
– ESPN + Viewer Guide: Bundesliga, Serie A, MLS, FA Cup and more

The draw also keeps alive the prospect of a fully English final, with a box office clash between Real and Bayern also possible.

With the route to Istanbul now clear, ESPN has tried to predict how the final rounds will be set up and who will meet in the final on May 29th.

---

While Manchester City will be the strong favorite to progress to a Dortmund team that is out of the top four in the German Bundesliga, everything could go wrong for Pep Guardiola’s side if they do not nullify the threat. of Erling Haaland.

The 20-year-old, whose father Alfie played for City between 2000 and 2003, is a major target in the summer for Guardiola, but right now is the biggest threat to City’s prospects. reach semis. Haaland is the top scorer in the competition this season with 10 goals and will not be baffled by City, but Dortmund also have the attacking talent of former City youngster Jadon Sancho to worry Guardiola and his players.

Dortmund’s weakness is behind them as they have conceded nine goals so far this season in the competition. Meanwhile, City have allowed just one goal in eight Champions League games – a 14-minute goal in City’s 3-1 win over Porto in October. But as impressive as City has been, they haven’t faced a Haaland-quality striker during a smooth run towards the quarter-finals, so the tie is less clear than it would seem on paper.

The city’s overall strength, like Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling, should see how they progressed, but Haaland could turn the tie around.

Who qualifies? Manchester City

Although Porto surprised Juventus in the last round to reach the quarter-finals, the two Champions League winners were the team the other seven clubs wanted to tie.

Coach Sergio Conceicao has built a tough and little-loved team at the Estadio do Dragao, with Pepe, 38, tasked with defending the defense exceptionally against Juve. Sergio Oliveira’s goal threat from midfield will worry Chelsea, but Thomas Tuchel’s side have been transformed since the German coach replaced Frank Lampard in January and was undefeated in 13 games (all competitions). His impressive quarter-final victory against Atletico Madrid also highlighted his appearance as a dangerous outsider in this season’s competition.

– Laurens: How Tuchel turned Chelsea

Tuchel has organized Chelsea defensively and is also starting to get the best out of Kai Havertz. Timo Werner is another player who starts acting with Tuchel after fighting with Lampard.

While Porto have the ability and the coach to make life hard for Chelsea and push them all the way, it’s hard to see it beyond the English club.

Who qualifies? Chelsea

The re-run of last season’s final, which Bayern won in Lisbon, makes the two favorites in this year’s competition face off again.

Bayern have beaten all other clubs this season with 24 goals in eight games so far, but Hansi Flick’s side have shown vulnerability in the Bundesliga by losing twice (against Borussia Mönchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt) in 2021. PSG have also fought for their usual winning form, with Mauricio Pochettino’s side in an unknown second place in Ligue 1 behind leader Lille. But Barcelona’s knockout round was a major psychological hurdle removed by PSG due to their previous frailties against Europe’s elite clubs, and facing Bayern again has come at a good time. for the French team.

If Neymar can return to fitness in time after a long period with a thigh injury, he and Kylian Mbappe could bring down Bayern. But at the moment, Bayern seem more likely to win the best position among the four draws.

Who qualifies? Bayern Munich

It’s the replay of the 1981 and 2018 Champions League finals, but also a showdown between two sides that have struggled to get in shape this season. Mohamed Salah’s reunion with Sergio Ramos for the first time since the Liverpool striker was injured by the Madrid captain in the 2018 final will be a fascinating subplot of this tie, but it is likely to be decided which team defends best.

Liverpool’s defensive crisis caused by the long-term injuries of Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez has destabilized Klopp’s team, while the absence of injuries to captain Jordan Henderson in midfield has also affected the results. Still, Real have leaked goals all season, with Zinedine Zidane’s side scoring 10 in eight Champions League games. Liverpool, despite their problems, have only let three goals into the competition this season.

The possibility of playing the draws at the small Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano del Real, on the club’s training ground, and on the return to an empty Anfield, will also have an impact, because both sides often rely on formidable support at home. stages of the Champions League.

It is a draw between an aged Real and an injured Liverpool, but if Salah and Sadio Mane are fit, Liverpool will win.

Who qualifies? Liverpool

SEMIFINAL FORECAST

Bayern Munich vs. Man City: If the quarter-finals go as planned, there will be a clash between Bayern and City in the semi-finals, and City will land again with the toughest route possible until the final.

Pep Guardiola spent three years at Bayern trying and failing to win the Champions League and it will be ten years in May since he last led a team to European glory, following Barcelona’s win over Manchester United at Wembley in 2011. City, of course. , have never won the Champions League or reached the final and, despite the incredible success they have achieved at the Etihad since arriving in 2016, they continue to look forward to glory in the biggest competition.

In terms of the quality of the teams and the squads, there is little difference between City and Bayern, although the German club’s pedigree in the Champions League gives them an advantage. They’ve been there and City haven’t, which matters in the final stages, as City don’t have the psychological strength to beat a Lyon team below last year’s quarter-finals.

The only area that could prove decisive. With Sergio Aguero struggling for fitness all season, City are missing a reliable striker. Gabriel Jesus has simply not been measured as a substitute. Meanwhile, Bayern have Robert Lewandowski, and the reliability of the Polish international makes the reigning European champions favorites to reach the final.

Who qualifies? Bayern Munich

Liverpool Vs. Chelsea: This Premier League clash turned into a Champions League grudge match during the 2000s, with Liverpool twice beating the London club in the semi-finals, in 2005 and 2007, before finally losing a third in 2008. This time, if Liverpool beat Real and Chelsea see out of Porto, they could meet again at this stage for the fourth time.

The Liverpool Champions League pedigree always counts in his favor, but this time he will not be able to rely on a noisy and crowded Anfield this time due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Chelsea won their last outing at Anfield in the Premier League earlier this month and Tuchel will believe he has the durability and confidence of his team to win again if they are in the semi-finals.

Both teams have struggled this season, but Chelsea have now found their form and look fresh and strong under their new coach. If they meet Liverpool in the semi-finals, Chelsea will have the advantage of reserving a rematch of their 2012 final victory against Bayern Munich.

Who qualifies? Chelsea