Federal officials warned this week that the United States could be on track to increase Covid-19 cases again, following Europe for a few weeks according to a pattern that has been seen throughout the pandemic.
European countries now implementing new blockades amid a resurgence of infections took an upward trend after ignoring known mitigation strategies, said Dr Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , and noted that it was a warning sign for the US.
On Friday, France imposed a one-month closure in Paris and other parts of the country. Italy earlier this week imposed new restrictions.
The U.S. in general has been following the European Union for a few weeks on the dynamics of the outbreak, Dr. Anthony Fauci said this week. In Europe, cases fell, spread and countries withdrew mitigation methods and had a rebound in cases, he said in a conversation with The Wall Street Journal.
“They’re now in the process of rebounding, which we really want to avoid,” Dr. Fauci. He added that, given the current level of community-acquired infection in the US, it is risky to back down all preventative measures.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University shows that in 25 states, the average number of new cases over the past seven days is higher than the average number of cases over the past 14 days, indicating that cases are increasing. . These states include Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. The number of states that tended in that direction has been swayed in recent weeks, from just five states a month ago.
The United States comprises many local epidemics, with different patterns in states governed by community decisions on interventions and vaccinations, said Yonatan Grad, assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health.
“I don’t know that it makes sense to compare the whole of the United States to what happens elsewhere,” Dr. Grad said.
If the number of cases and hospitalizations increase in places where restrictions have been lifted and bars, restaurants and more activities reopened, this raises concerns about an increase in transmission, Dr. Grad said. In these places, he added, the expectation is that the figures will continue to rise.
In Michigan, the positivity of the cases has increased for more than three weeks, with all regions, either with plateau or with increasing positivity, according to data from the University of Michigan. According to the CDC, the highly transmissible variant of coronavirus first identified in the UK, known as B.1.1.7, is prevalent in the state, with 616 cases.
At first, the post-holiday decline in new cases of Covid-19 was steady in Michigan, and then began to slow and increase, said Emily Toth Martin, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Michigan School of Public Health.
The number of cases in younger age groups, under 50, is increasing, Dr. Martin said, and there are reports of case groups occurring around out-of-school-related activities. classroom.
NIAID Director Anthony Fauci says it is risky to withdraw public health measures as the cases could reach the plateau and then, as they did in Europe.
Dr. Martin said she has been working with a Covid-19 case genomic sequencing team. In Michigan, he said, they are testing known cluster variants, rather than doing random sampling in the community.
“If you compare us to a state that is randomly displayed throughout the community, it seems like we have a varying problem,” Dr. Martin said, “when we’re really looking for it in a more targeted way.”
The UK variant is not the predominant strain moving around the community, Dr Martin said. In contrast, the increase in the case count is due to changes in behavior, more mobility and more openness.
This will cause fluctuations in the count of cases, mainly because the number of people vaccinated in the community is not so high, he said. About 22% of residents have received at least one shot, according to a newspaper analysis of CDC data.
“We’re getting a little more out of skis, in terms of having a lot of excitement to get involved again and start opening things up and start holding meetings again, when really none of the people involved in these activities are actually protected or immune, ”Dr. Martin said.
Overall, the Covid-19 positivity rate continues to decline in the US, with a seven-day average of 4.1%. According to CDC data, cases of Covid-19 per capita are higher in the 18-24 age group, followed by those in the 25-34 age group.
The possible plateau comes as the U.S. vaccination campaign, considered key to ending the pandemic, escalates. Last week, the country surpassed the milestone of 100 million doses of vaccine administered. And on Friday, the United States met President Biden’s goal of providing 100 million doses of vaccine during his first 100 days in office, weeks ahead of schedule. The rate of vaccination is now 2.5 million daily doses; nearly 12 percent of the U.S. population is vaccinated, according to data from Johns Hopkins.
In comparison, 3.68% of Italians, 3.64% of Germans, 3.37% of French and 2.65% of UK residents are vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins. The EU’s vaccination effort has been hampered by the scarcity of doses, making it unlikely that only a small part of the general public will receive a shot in late summer, while the spread of coronavirus variants Highly contagious is accelerating throughout the region.
Most Americans who have been completely vaccinated are 50 or older, according to CDC data.
But if the United States chooses to prioritize a limited number of vaccines for older or vulnerable adults — who are at higher risk for serious complications and death from Covid-19 — it means that those most likely are more likely to move on. the community would be vaccinated later, according to Dr. Martin and Dr. Grad.
“It makes sense, if your goal is to reduce deaths, to focus on vaccinating those who are most at risk of dying if they are infected,” said Dr. Grad, who added, “There are some contexts in which you would like to vaccinate. those who are at the highest risk of transmitting to reduce cases, to reduce deaths “.
Write to Melanie Grayce West at [email protected]
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