With the arrival of spring and after a grueling year of COVID-19 restrictions, Americans are eager to regain some sense of normalcy.
However, many health experts call for patience and warn that a fourth rise may be on the horizon, with more than a dozen states showing initial signs of a growing number of cases.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, has raised the alarm this week and expressed concern that we may reopen more quickly than we should.
“There were times when we thought things were under control and then they exploded again,” Fauci said. “So even though we’re going in the right direction, we have to keep our foot on the pedal when it comes to public health measures.”
Over the past week, more than a dozen states have seen their daily average cases increase. Parts of the Upper Midwest have shown particularly worrying trends, including in Michigan, where cases have been on the rise since late February.
Experts and officials fear that a combination of loosening and diffusion restrictions on the UK variant could cause the increase in Michigan, a potentially worrying sign for other areas as mass vaccination spreads.
“Real Concern” in Michigan
Great Lake State currently has the fourth highest average COVID-19 case per capita in the country, with New Jersey at the helm of the country. Over the past three weeks, the daily average of cases has doubled. In the last week alone, the state average has risen by 53%.
The seven-day average now exceeds 2,500 new cases a day, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and on Wednesday Michigan reported a total of 3,164 new cases, the highest number of cases a day since early January.
In comparison, California, with about four times the population of Michigan, has only recorded 415 more cases than Michigan this week.
“Despite several months of declining trends, we are still at high levels of community transmission [the U.K.] variant that is known to be more transmissible, there is a real concern that you may quickly enter a situation of exponential growth in cases that threaten to overflow health systems again, “said Josh Petrie, research assistant professor in the Department of Health. ‘Epidemiology of the University of Michigan School of Public Health.
Michigan has experienced a steady increase in hospitalizations since late February and there are currently 1,000 people hospitalized, said Dr. Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health, during a press conference Wednesday, a 45 % plus February 25th.
By contrast, the seven-day average of hospitalizations has dropped 8.4% nationally this week and 73% from the January peak, according to CDC data.
Over the past week, hospital admissions in Michigan have increased 24%, according to the CDC, and Philadelphia Children’s Hospital PolicyLab reports that visits to emergency services and hospitalizations are increasing in Michigan.
Wayne and Genesee counties (home of Detroit and Flint) and Macomb county have viral reproduction numbers above 1.3, which indicate “substantial transmission,” and the organization’s models project a potential duplication in case of incidence in these counties over the next 3-4 weeks.
While there is still a decline in the number of deaths in the state, Lyon-Callo warned that deaths are a lagging indicator. Therefore, that the number of COVID-related fatalities could increase in the coming weeks.
Appearance of the UK variant
According to the CDC, Michigan currently ranks second in the country for the most reported cases of variant B.1.1.7 first discovered in the UK, with more than 725 confirmed cases in 31 counties.
“This variant is very transmissible,” Dr. Nigel Paneth, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics and pediatrics at Michigan State University, told ABC News. “It may be a little more likely to cause serious illness, but current vaccines seem to prevent them.”
The variant is found in the most densely populated areas of the state, with more than half of the B.1.1.7 variants identified coming from an outbreak within the Michigan Department of Corrections, according to the state health department.
In addition to variant B.1.1.7 that increases transmission, there is a confluence of factors that can lead to increasing metrics, Dr. Tara Smith, a professor of epidemiology at Kent State University College of Health, told ABC News Public. starting by easing restrictions on food, entertainment venues and other businesses, by the administration of Governor Gretchen Whitmer in recent weeks.
“I think we also see COVID fatigue, along with, in our state, a modest relaxation of public health guidelines,” Paneth said. “There is clearly an unfortunate trend now for the general public to relax distancing measures and for authorities to relax public health restrictions. This is a real concern in light of the continued evolution of new strains of the COVID virus.”
In addition, with more children returning to school and participating in sports programs, school-related COVID-19 cases are increasing in the state, according to state data.
“The highest number of outbreaks occur in K-12 schools at 162, with 54 new outbreaks reported this week,” Callo-Lyon said. Children ages 10 to 19 now have the highest COVID-19 case rate in Michigan, a rate that “increases faster than other age groups.”
However, nationwide, new cases of children declined for the eighth consecutive week, according to a weekly report by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association.
However, he said, these new cases are associated with extracurricular activities, such as sports, and not being in the classroom. As a result, Michigan will begin requiring tests on high school student-athletes.
“The classroom environment itself has not been a strong signal for outbreaks. There are usually more activities associated with schools, which include sports, but are not limited to sports, ”added Callo-Lyon.
“We grit our teeth”
The outbreaks come as the state prepares to open its largest mass vaccination site at Ford Field in Detroit, which will officially open on March 24th.
“It’s time we grit our teeth and keep doing the work we have to do until the last second of this event occurs. If we want to get back to normal … we all need to get vaccinated, encourage our loved ones ones and friends, co-workers and neighbors to do it, ”Whitmer said Thursday.
The state vaccinates at a rate of 90,000 people a day, according to state officials, but so far, less than 25% of the state’s population has received at least the first dose of vaccines.
The percentage is lower for cities like Detroit, to 15.1%. Earlier this month, the city of Detroit was criticized for deciding to give up a Johnson & Johnson vaccine assignment.
Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan had said the intention “for as long as possible” was to “stay with the Modern and Pfizer vaccines,” as they were “the best.” However, the mayor later withdrew his comments and said the city is “excited” to have three highly effective vaccines to offer its residents.
Experts agree that the key to preventing a possible resurgence will be to not only vaccinate as many Americans as soon as possible, but also to follow up on appropriate mitigation efforts.
“Vaccinating so many people as soon as possible will be helpful in reducing the impact of a resurgence. However, my concern is that it will take about a month and a half to get both doses and develop complete immunity. Transmission happens much faster than that, “Petrie said.” So continuing to mask, distance ourselves and avoid unnecessary contact with the community will be important until we can vaccinate a much larger proportion of the population. “
“We all need to be careful and realize that we are not out of the woods yet,” Smith concluded.