Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will run in his fourth election in two years on Tuesday, fighting for a parliamentary majority that could help him subdue his ongoing corruption process.
Why it’s important: Three inconclusive elections have left Israel locked in a protracted political crisis as Netanyahu struggles for his political and legal survival. This time, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister faces divided opposition and has a clear chance of finally winning a 61-seat majority.
The state of play: Recent polls show that Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and a broad anti-Netanyahu bloc win 60 seats.
What to see: If Netanyahu reaches the age of 61, he will form the most religious and conservative coalition in the country’s history. His rivals say this government could challenge the country’s democratic character.
- Netanyahu denies that he plans to fire the attorney general or pass laws to suspend his corruption trial, but several of his potential coalition partners have expressed support for those steps.
- If Netanyahu’s bloc fails to get a majority, Israel is likely to head to a fifth round of elections.
Leading the news: Both Netanyahu and his main rival, centrist Yair Lapid, gathered their bases on the eve of the election.
- Lapid is expected to boost participation in Tel Aviv, Haifa and other major cities in central Israel.
- Netanyahu is trying to mobilize voters in his Likud party strongholds in northern and southern Israel and Jerusalem.
- The result could be reduced to the question of which small parties on both sides reach the 3.25% electoral threshold to enter the Knesset.
- The participation of the Israeli Arab minority, which is expected to fall this time, will also be crucial in determining the outcome.
Flashback: Netanyahu and his centrist rival Benny Gantz signed a power-sharing deal last April that outraged many of Gantz’s supporters by allowing Netanyahu to retain power for 18 months while stipulating that Gantz would be prime minister.
- Before power changed hands, the government collapsed in December, along with Gantz’s political position.
Zoom in: One of the most interesting players in this election is Naftali Bennett, a former right-wing tech entrepreneur who until recently had seen himself as a king because neither bloc could reach 61 without him.
- The numbers in his party’s polls began to fall when Netanyahu told supporters that Bennett was allying with Lapid against his fellow Conservatives.
- Under pressure, Bennett entered a pro-Netanyahu channel and signed a document on live television promising not to join a Lapid-led government, effectively aligning with Netanyahu.
What follows: Exit polls will be posted at 9pm local time (3pm ET), but pollsters will be very cautious because thousands of votes will be counted late due to COVID-19 restrictions.
The summary: These elections will probably be decided by one or two seats, which means that a few thousand votes could change the outcome and the whole country.
In depth: Thousands protest outside Netanyahu’s home.