Raúl Castro will retire at the age of 89, leaving next April the maximum power of the island during the Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC), the first to take place after the death of his brother Fidel in 2016. The Castro brothers have held the kingdoms firmly in Cuba since 1959, now opening up to a new era with other men in power.
The change comes at the worst time in the Cuban economy in almost 30 years, the congress of the Communist Party, which marks the departure of Raul Castro from power, will have to accentuate the reforms aimed at greater openness to private enterprise .
The new team has “pending the task of building its legitimacy, which will only be able to emanate from its own political project, which will bring economic prosperity with social justice to Cuba,” said Michael Shifter, president of the analysis center. Inter-American Dialogue, in Washington.
It is expected that these men and women, led by the current president Miguel Díaz-Canel, 60 years old, arrive during the next congress of the PCC, which will be held from April 16 to 19, to the top leadership of the party, center of power on the island.
Cuba it will remain socialist, but for specialists constitutional legality will limit the preeminence of ideology and may allow for political openness.
In April 2019 a new Constitution was passed defending the “irreversible” nature of socialism in the country. She is “a daughter of her time and reflects the diversity of society,” said Raúl Castro, who after ceding the presidency to Díaz-Canel in 2018, he will now leave the leadership of the PCC.
Unlike its predecessor, passed unanimously in 1976, the new Magna Carta received the approval of 78.3 percent of popular suffrage, and 22 percent of rejection or abstention, a high level in the context Cuban. However, in recent months, artists, intellectuals and other sectors of civil society have begun to demand rights and freedoms in the country.
In the face of these claims, the new team is expected to push for political reform of the state “to effectively manage the tensions that are manifesting in society,” he said. Change considering that at least in theory the Constitution allows to deconcentrate the power of the president.
On November 27, an unprecedented peaceful protest of 300 artists was recorded in front of the Ministry of Culture, demanding freedom of expression. While a few weeks ago a decree for animal welfare was passed, considered the first victory of unofficial civil society.
The rapid spread of the internet in the last three years on the island has allowed many Cubans to express discontent. The PCC, meanwhile, announced it will face “political-ideological subversion” on social media.
per Change, This new ruling generation has the major challenge of responding with a political project different from that of the generation of historical leaders, which grants broad quotas of freedom to society.
The tradition of the revolution leaders had been to mobilize their hosts for active ideological support, but that is changing.
“Today the mobilization is selective. Not so much with an ideological logic but a political one, of accommodation in government, demanding neutrality rather than militancy,” said Cuban academic Arturo López-Levy of Holy Names University. Oakland, California.
Another key factor will be the relationship the new political team maintains with the United States, which for some experts largely determines what happens on the island.
The new president of United States, Joe Biden, He had advanced in his campaign that he could eliminate the sanctions imposed by his predecessor, Donald Trump, And to resume a policy of approach to the island, having like compass the exigency of the respect to the human rights. However, so far Cuba has not been a priority.
“Because of the dynamics that exist between Cuba and the United States, the United States really directly and indirectly conditions much of what is happening. [en Cuba]”From the decision-making of even Cuban leaders,” said political analyst Harold Cárdenas.
The new Cuban political project should also build a pragmatic relationship with the United States, and one thing that could change is the strong military presence in the government, the CCP, and the economy.
Much of the 280 sanctions imposed on Cuba by the Trump administration targeted military-led companies. Under a new policy they could pass into civilian hands for not being the target of sanctions.
Although, whether civilian or military, the state owns these companies. In the event that this does not happen and American hostility continues, internally “Cuba lived a long renegotiation of civil-military relations,” Lopez-Levy notes.
Then “the military will have the perfect justification to continue playing its prominent role in the political and socio-economic,” he concluded.
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