A Covid-19 test site in Cape Coral, Florida.
Photographer: Zack Wittman / Bloomberg
Photographer: Zack Wittman / Bloomberg
Cases coveted in the U.S. are on the rise again, reversing course after months of decline and threatening another setback in a return to normalcy.
The seven-day average of new cases jumped to 57,695 on Wednesday, 9.5% from the previous week, marking the largest increase since January 12, according to Data from Johns Hopkins University.
While it’s a fraction of the mid-January peak, the change of direction is worrisome, as states open up their economies, multiply national cases and races to vaccinate as many people as possible to avoid another wave.
“We are not safe,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment, which produces influential projections of Covid-19. “We’re slowing down and in many places we’re going in the wrong direction.”
Rise in cases
Weekly percentage change in the 7-day average of cases in the United States
Source: Johns Hopkins University data
New York case figures reported this week by Johns Hopkins appeared artificially inflated after data delays. But this did not have a significant impact on the national trend, which increases to about the same degree, even without New York.
“Now is not the time to let go. We have the goal in sight, we need more vaccines, and we need more effective ways to get it out, “said Isaac Weisfuse, a medical epidemiologist and adjunct professor at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York.” It’s not really a tragedy. for someone to get infected and die at this stage. “
A collection of nearly 10 percent should have been for states to reconsider reopening plans and try to speed up vaccination, focusing on the hardest-hit neighborhoods, Weisfuse said. Growing pandemic fatigue among young Americans, especially those traveling for spring break, is a major concern, because they are less likely to get shot.
The United States has vaccinated 1 in 4 people and last week averaged about 2.5 million doses a day, according to Bloomberg vaccine follower. This is not enough to achieve the herd’s immunity and many public health experts fear that another increase may occur before vaccination reaches its maximum. Texas, Tennessee and Alabama are among the slowest in the country, which may reflect the hesitation of the vaccine among Republicans, especially men.
While vaccinations and declining coronavirus seasonality are playing to the advantage of the United States, this weighs against more contagious variants, increasing mobility and decreasing the use of masks, Mokdad said.
Case declines in large states such as California, Texas and Florida have masked the increases elsewhere. “We’re seeing a localized wave, but we can see it everywhere,” Mokdad said. “If we’re not quick to re-mark or impose warrants to slow the rise, yes, we’ll see a rise in cases.”
Hospitalizations in some states are also beginning to challenge the downward trend. Seven states, including New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland, reported increasing average daily Covid-19 entries for one consecutive week, according to a University of Minnesota data analysis from the Department of Health and Human Services.
“It’s important not to ignore changes, especially when those changes are more consistent,” he said Pinar Karaca-Mandic, professor of health risk management who directs the analysis.
The good news: Fewer of these hospitalizations can result in admissions or deaths in intensive care, as the vaccination campaign has focused on older Americans and those at higher risk, Karaca-Mandic said.
– With the assistance of Jonathan Levin