WASHINGTON (AP) – US military warns China is likely to speed up its timing to capture control of Taiwan, the island’s democracy that has been the main source of tension between Washington and Beijing. for decades and is widely seen as the most likely trigger for a potentially catastrophic war between the United States and China.
Concern for Taiwan arises when China exerts a new force from years of military buildup. He has become more aggressive with Taiwan and more assertive in sovereignty disputes over the South China Sea. Beijing has also become more confrontational with Washington; senior Chinese officials traded sharp and unusually public stock exchanges with Secretary of State Antony Blinken in conversations in Alaska last month.
A military move against Taiwan, however, would be a testament to U.S. support for the island that Beijing sees as a pro-independence province. For the Biden administration, it could present the option of leaving a democratic or friendly entity or risking what could become a total war for a cause that is not on the radar of most Americans. . The United States has long been committed to helping Taiwan defend itself, but has deliberately made it unclear how far they would go in response to a Chinese attack.
This accumulation of concerns is related to the administration’s view that China is a front-line challenge for the United States and that it needs to be done very soon, militarily, diplomatically and by other means, to deter Beijing, as it seeks to supplanting the United States as the predominant power. in Asia. Some U.S. military leaders see Taiwan as the most immediate flash point.
“We have indications that the risks are increasing,” Admiral Philip Davidson, the U.S. military’s top commander in the Asia-Pacific region, told a Senate court last month, referring to a Chinese military move to Taiwan.
“The threat manifests itself over this decade, in fact, over the next six years,” Davidson said.
Days later, Davidson’s long-awaited successor, Adm. John Aquilino, refused to back up within six years, but told senators at his confirmation hearing: “My view is that this issue is much closer to us than most think.”
Biden administration officials have spoken with less pronouncement, but underscored the intention to deepen ties with Taiwan, sparking warnings from Beijing against the interference of outsiders in what it considers a national issue.
On Wednesday, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the military threat to his country was mounting, and while he said it was not yet “especially alarming,” the Chinese military has in the past two years carried out what he called “real combat.” type ”exercises closest to the island.
“We are willing to defend ourselves, that’s for sure,” Wu told reporters. “We will fight a war if we need a war and if we have to defend ourselves to the last day, we will defend ourselves to the last day.”
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin qualifies China as the “threat of the pace” for the United States and military services adjust accordingly. The Marine Corps, for example, is being reformed with China and Russia in mind after two decades of fighting on the ground against extremists in the Middle East.
Hardly an aspect of China’s military modernization has failed to irritate the U.S. military. The adm. Charles Richard, who as head of U.S. strategic command is in charge of U.S. nuclear forces, wrote in a recent essay that China is on track to become a “strategic partner” of the United States. He said China’s nuclear weapons reserve is expected to double “if not triple or quadruple” in the next ten years, though that goes beyond the Pentagon’s official view that the reserve “at least is will double “in this period.
Taiwan, however, is seen as the most pressing issue.
U.S. officials have pointed to the actions of the People’s Liberation Army that appear to be designed to bring down Taiwan. For example, Chinese air raids, including flights around the island, are almost daily as they serve to announce the threat, wear out Taiwanese pilots and planes, and learn more about Taiwan’s capabilities.
Chinese officials have mocked Davidson’s comments in Taiwan. A Defense Ministry spokesman, Colonel Ren Guoqiang, urged Washington to “abandon the thought of zero peace” and do more to build mutual trust and stability. He said that “attempts by foreign forces to use Taiwan to stop China or the use by Taiwan’s pro-independence forces to use military means to achieve independence, are hopeless.”
The implications of a Chinese military movement against Taiwan and its 23 million people are so deep and potentially serious that Beijing and Washington have long managed a fragile middle ground: Taiwan’s political autonomy that impedes Beijing’s control. , but which does not reach formal independence.
Predictions of when China might decide to try to force Taiwan to reunite with the mainland have varied for a long time, and there is no uniform view in the United States. Larry Diamond, a senior member of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, said last week that he doubts Chinese leaders are ready to force the issue.
“I don’t think it’s coming soon,” he said.
The Trump administration made a number of moves to demonstrate a stronger commitment to Taiwan, including sending a cabinet member to Taipei last year, making him the most senior U.S. official. level he visited the island since formal diplomatic relations were broken in 1979 to respect China. . The Biden administration says it wants to cooperate with China whenever possible, but has expressed objections to a wide range of Chinese actions.
Last week, U.S. Ambassador to Palau, Pacific Island nation John Hennessey-Niland became the first U.S. ambassador in service to visit Taiwan since Washington severed ties with Taipei in favor of Beijing.
China is a frequent target of criticism in Congress. Concerns about combating its growing military power are reflected in the approval of the $ 2.2 billion Pacific Deterrence Initiative by 2021. Davidson wants it to support, among other initiatives, the establishment of a best air defense system to protect Guam territory from Chinese missiles. and preserve U.S. military dominance in the region.
Representative Adam Smith, a Washington Democrat and chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, is skeptical about military fixation on domination.
“Given the way the world works now, having a dominant country is hopelessly unreal,” he said at a recent online forum sponsored by Meridian, a nonpartisan diplomacy center. He said the U.S. military can maintain enough strength, in collaboration with allies, to send the message, “China, don’t invade Taiwan because the price you’ll pay for it isn’t worth it.”
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Associated Press writer Ken Moritsugu in Beijing, AP writer Huizhong Wu in Taipei, Taiwan, and AP diplomatic writer Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.