There are growing signs that some parts of the country may be close to meeting the demand for the coronavirus vaccine, long before the U.S. has achieved herd immunity.
Why it’s important: For the past few months, the main focus of the U.S. has been to get shots fired at anyone who wants them, as soon as possible. Soon, this approach will abruptly shift to convincing seizures to get vaccinated.
Game status: Southern red states administer the lowest portion of vaccine doses they receive from the federal government, a sign of low demand, slow public health systems, or both.
- Polls have found that the most vaccine-reluctant Americans are white Republicans.
By numbers: On average, states have administered 76% of the doses they have received from the federal government. New Hampshire has administered the largest proportion of all states, with 89.8%, while Alabama has administered the smallest part, only 61.4% of its doses.
Leading the news: An analysis released yesterday by Surgo Ventures concluded that “the change in supply-demand for the vaccine will occur earlier than expected (as early as the end of April) and before the nation reaches the 70-90% threshold to achieve herd immunity “.
- He published a survey where it was found that 59% of adults in the United States say they are already vaccinated or plan to do so as soon as they have it. At the current vaccination rate in the United States, all those adult vaccine enthusiasts could be inoculated in late April.
- Vaccination rates will slow and Surgo projections show that only about 52% of Americans will be vaccinated in July. When combined with people who have already become infected, the overall immunity rate can be around 65% by then, still not high enough for herd immunity.
What they say: “This analysis shows that despite the widespread enthusiasm for the vaccine we’re seeing now in the United States, things are going to get really tough soon,” said Sema Sgaier, CEO of Surgo.
- “Without a major investment to address people’s barriers i making vaccines available to children under the age of 18, achieving the herd’s immunity will be a real challenge. “
A separate survey of rural Americans, released by KFF this morning, found that while they are more likely to have already been vaccinated than urban and suburban Americans, there are fewer rural residents left who are eager to shoot them.
- 39% have already received at least one dose of the vaccine, 16% say they will get it as soon as possible and 15% have said they want to “wait and see”.
- Another 9% said they would only be vaccinated if necessary and 21% said they definitely would not. In suburban areas, a combined 21% said they were resistant to the vaccine and only a combined 16% of urban residents said the same.
- Among rural residents who said they would definitely not be vaccinated, nearly three-quarters were Republicans or Republicans and 41% were white evangelical Christians.
The summary: It is likely that rural states with Republican strength are blowing through their populations eager to be vaccinated.