Republicans and Democrats tasked with overseeing the process of redistricting states across the country must now evaluate these changes as they begin making adjustments once every ten years in districts that help greatly in determining the composition and control. – of the House of Representatives.
“It’s the million-dollar question,” said Michael Li, a senior attorney at the Brennan Justice Center, which works on redistricting and voting rights, on whether changes during Trump’s tenure will be permanent. “Map makers are usually nothing if not prudent and the most prudent thing is to assume that changes that work against you or against your party are permanent, while changes that work in your favor are temporary.”
Congressional districts are redrawn every 10 years, using the latest census data, along with data points ranging from education levels, wealth and historical voting patterns, to removing seats in Congress. Republicans, due to their control of most state legislatures, have been much more successful in drawing maps that favor their party.
Democrats have responded with a two-pronged approach with very different levels of success. First, agents and lawyers have filed several successful lawsuits alleging that the other party is illegally mishandling, particularly on the racial line. Second, Democrats have tried to turn the redistricting process into a political issue, pledging millions more to try to reclaim state legislatures before the redistricting process. These efforts have been much less successful.
In most states, maps are redrawn and accepted by state legislatures, and many give the state governor authority to approve or deny new districts. Only a handful of states, including Arizona, Colorado, and Michigan, rely on relatively independent commissions to determine new maps.
For those in charge of redistricting, especially in states with some political control, the pressure to achieve these calculations is immense, as the process could determine control of the House of Representatives over the next few years. Adding pressure to these calculations is leading to dramatic demographic changes across the country, with states in the upper northwest and northeast likely to lose seats in Congress, while states such as Georgia, Texas, Florida and North Carolina will be added to seats due to growth largely fueled by minority voters.
“It’s the issue when it comes to redistributing this cycle,” Adam Kincaid, head of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said about the length of changes observed during the Trump administration. And it has forced people to wonder if this is “the beginning of a new long-term normalcy or of those temporary flows we are feeling right now.”
“I don’t think anyone has the answer,” he said.
The states that lose and those that win
Experts believe a slate in the Midwest and Northeastern states, such as Michigan, Minnesota, New York and Ohio, is likely to lose some seats once census data is released later this year. This puts pressure on politicians in each state so that the lost seat does not come from their aisle. While some of these states are guided by independent commissions, a state like Ohio is under Republican control, meaning the state’s conservatives can work to ensure the lost district harms Democrats.
The so-called Sun Belt states, including Arizona, Texas, Florida and North Carolina, are expected to gain seats that will lose their Northern counterparts. Although an independent commission determines Arizona districts, the process in Texas, Florida and North Carolina is guided by their respective state legislatures, all controlled by Republicans.
The impact of these changes will be felt across the country, both in major metropolitan areas and in rural communities.
In New Mexico, where Democrats control both the state legislature and the governor’s mansion, the party is expected to redraw the 2nd district of the State Congress, a district currently leaning toward Republicans and represented by Republican Yvette Herrell.
In Texas, Republicans are in complete control of the process, but they face the reality that explosive growth in the state comes from the more competitive and diverse suburbs of cities like Austin, Dallas and Houston, and not in the Republican West. of Texas, population growth has not kept pace.
And in places like Ohio, a state that demographers hope will lose a seat in Congress, Republicans are expected to take almost total control of the redistricting process to ensure the Congressional district does not step out of its column.
According to Kelly Ward, chair of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, the issue Republicans face in growing states is that much of that growth, especially in the suburbs, comes from minority populations. If Republicans are engaged in cutting these populations and combining them with more reliable Republican voters in suburban and rural areas, the party will open up to racial claims.
“The presumption that Republicans should get all these new seats simply because they control the process is a presumption of maneuver,” Ward said. “And that’s illegal.”
For Republicans, Li told the Brennan Center, the problem area is the south. The party has greater control of the process in states like Georgia, Texas and Florida, he said, but it is more difficult to administer them in those states without exposing the state to race-based claims.
“(South) The problem with white Democrats is that they tend to live near white Republicans, sometimes in the same house, so unless you’re asking for gerrymings in someone’s bed … it’s really hard to ask. white democrats when there aren’t that many of them, ”Li said. “It’s much more efficient because of residential segregation to target communities of color. And so you really can’t become a political gerrymander in the south without targeting communities of color, which will get you into race – based claims “.
Battlefield Burbs
The nation’s suburbs appear to be the key battleground in these states, given that most of the changes in these areas have been caused by the diversification of suburbs around some of the city’s largest cities. country. In these Republican-controlled states, past redistricting struggles have divided metropolitan areas and merged into more Republican exurban and rural areas, thus diluting the democratic advantage in those areas.
Each party would work to spread its supporters in different districts with or without Trump-era political changes. But these changes have added another level of uncertainty to the process.
“For the people who did these things a decade ago, if they had known Donald Trump was coming in 2016 and changing the U.S. electorate, there are at least a couple of dozen seats across the country that s ‘they would have achieved it differently than they were,’ Kincaid said. “And that’s the challenge for years to come: trying to predict the extent to which this realignment is permanent versus temporary.”
For the past ten years, Democrats have focused more on redistricting and imposing mistakes, and this year they are focusing more on states where Republicans are not only in control, but also gaining the power to redraw another seat. .
The more aggressive actions of Democrats, along with changes in states to make the redistricting process less partisan, have made it possible for Republicans to protect their redistricting work in some states. That’s why people like Ward and other redistricting-focused Democrats believe the party will try to do everything it can in places like Florida, Georgia and Texas to get seats.
The latest redistricting process is also taking place at a time when Democrats are drawing much more attention to the imposition of mistakes, making it an important political issue, especially in minority communities that are often more affected by partisan redistricting.
Jasmine Burney-Clark, who runs the Equal Ground Education Fund in Florida, recently began preparing activists to put pressure on the redistricting process, teaching various community and faith leaders what role they might play in advocating for ‘a fair redistriction in a state where process is controlled by Republicans. The effort comes years after a withdrawal process in 2010 led to numerous lawsuits and a withdrawal process.
“We’re definitely getting ready for what might come, because we’ve seen it before,” Burney-Clark said. “Our hope is that they have learned a lesson and try to do it this time with black and brown people, but we know they will try to squeeze everything they can in the most advantageous way possible.”