The long-awaited withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan, recently announced for September 11, has unleashed fears in the Asian country of a failure in peace negotiations and the arrival of a new civil war.
US President Joe Biden announced this week his intention to withdraw his nearly 3,500 troops from Afghanistan after reviewing for weeks the historic agreement reached between Washington and the Taliban in February last year. in Doha.
NATO allies will also withdraw their nearly 7,000 troops as of May 1.
Both decisions come as Afghan troops, after two decades of conflict with the insurgent formation, strive to maintain their positions despite constant casualties.
The Taliban do not control any of the 34 provincial capitals, but the group has been able to reduce government control over the country to 53.8%, according to the latest available US forces data released in January. of 2019.
The insurgents directly control 12% of the territory, mainly in remote and sparsely populated areas, while the rest of the country is considered disputed territory.
CIVIL WAR AND NEW HOSPITALITIES
Faced with this scenario, the recent proclamations of several former mujahideen commanders or former warlords to fight the Taliban on their own, if the insurgent formation intensifies hostilities, has unleashed fears of a civil war.
“We have a lot of former jihadist commanders inside and outside the government system who are ready to defend their people in the face of a Taliban turn,” said a political analyst working for the government, who called for the anonymity.
The leader of the Hazara ethnic group and former warlord Mohammad Mohaqiq, with influence in the center of the Asian country; Ismail Khan, a strong man in western Afghanistan; and several influential anti-Taliban militias in the north have announced in recent weeks that they are ready for a confrontation.
Afghanistan is still fresh from the civil war of the 1990s, in which various Mujahideen factions fought to take control of the state after the end of the communist regime.
The announcement of the new date for the withdrawal of US troops has angered the Taliban, who have threatened to abandon stalled peace talks in Qatar since last September and not participate in international conferences such as the one scheduled in Turkey. next week.
The insurgent formation demands that the original date of May 1, agreed with former US President Donald Trump in Doha, be respected, a demand that raises fears of increased hostilities.
“When the United States and its allies leave Afghanistan, the Taliban may not see the need to continue negotiations and try to win militarily, so the war will get worse,” political analyst Hafiz Ahmadi told Efe. .
Taliban chief spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Efe that the resurgence of the war depends on the political process.
“If there is no progress in the negotiations and the opposing side continues to refuse our demands, we will certainly continue the war and win by military means,” he said, before claiming that they have 100,000 active fighters not counting. with the soldiers in service.
THE ROLE OF PAKISTAN
Retired general and political analyst Atiqullah Amarkhil told Efe that “it is certain” that the conflict between the government and the Taliban will intensify, although that does not mean the insurgent group can rise with a military victory.
“I think no side can win this war by force, the last twenty years have proven that fact,” he said.
Amarkhil recalled that the Taliban movement emerged in the 1990s under the protection of Pakistan, so the only way for the Afghan conflict to reach a peaceful solution is for the neighboring country to stop fully supporting the Taliban. insurgents.
The Afghan government and the United States have strongly accused Pakistan of training and funding the Taliban, which Islamabad has always denied.
For his part, political analyst Safiullah Mullakhil has stressed to Efe that a possible increase in hostilities in the absence of foreign troops could pave the way for regional and international terrorist networks to re-establish themselves in the Asian country.
THE GOVERNMENT HIGHLIGHTS THE ROLE THE ARMY
Despite the doubts, the Afghan government has struggled in recent weeks to highlight its confidence in the security forces and the police, made up of some 350,000 troops including 40,000 members of the special forces.
“Afghanistan does not need U.S. combat troops on the ground, it needs support for its armed forces,” the Afghan National Security Council said.
96% of the operations in recent months have been carried out by Afghan forces autonomously, the Council said, while the president of the Asian country, Ashraf Ghani, stated that the United States will continue to provide assistance. military despite withdrawing its troops.