Russia has been conducting last-minute military exercises near maritime trade routes in the Black Sea that threaten to stifle the Ukrainian economy, according to an internal document of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry revised by Axios.
Why is it important?: Looking at the world towards the massive build-up of troops in eastern Ukraine, the leaked note shows that Russian forces are scaling their presence on all sides of the Ukrainian border.
Zoom in: On Friday, Russia announced its intention to block foreign ships in parts of the Black Sea for military exercises until October, an escalation that a State Department spokesman condemned as an example of the “ongoing campaign of Moscow to undermine and destabilize Ukraine “.
- A few days earlier, the Pentagon had canceled plans to send two U.S. warships into the Black Sea, according to Reuters. No explanation was provided.
- The leaked Ukrainian document estimates that the total area of Russian military exercises occupies 27% of the Black Sea, a proportion that has been steadily dragging on as a sign of efforts to establish de facto control over international waters.
- The Russians are also taking advantage of civilian infrastructure for military purposes, according to Ukraine. The document says Russia has installed radars on the natural gas platforms it confiscated in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Between lines: Radar systems in civilian infrastructure could allow the Russian military to establish awareness and presence in areas where it should not be.
- Just this month, Russian state media accused Poland of “provocative” activities near the controversial and nearly finished Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea.
- A U.S. official closely monitoring these developments said that “the armament of energy infrastructure in the Black Sea should be a warning sign of what is to come” if Nord Stream 2, which would bypass Ukraine and deliver Russian gas directly to Europe, the Baltic would come to fruition.
- Although Biden has said he opposes Nord Stream 2, it is unlikely to sanction European allies like Germany to stop its final stretch of construction.
The big picture: Much of the concern over Russia’s aggression in recent weeks has not been directed at its activities in the Black Sea, but at the border with eastern Ukraine, where the top EU diplomat says which have now accumulated more than 150,000 soldiers.
- The leaked document shows that Russian forces are increasing their presence on all sides of the Ukrainian border with units that have a wide range of capabilities, including many that suggest more sinister intentions than a simple show of force.
- The document suggests that Russia’s actions could be designed to distract from internal problems ahead of the September legislative elections or to thwart NATO exercises and intimidate Ukraine into reversing its “positive political developments.”
- But it also finds a “high probability” that Russia is trying to provoke Ukrainian forces to create a pretext for a military incursion, as it did in Georgia in 2008.