Satellite images show the expansion of Ukraine into Russia

Other Russian military units on the Crimean peninsula include airborne troops, motorized rifles and armored units, attack helicopters, smoke generators, reconnaissance drones, blocking equipment and a military hospital, according to the photos.

These forces and the parking of Su-34, Su-30, Su-27, Su-25 and Su-24 aircraft elsewhere in the region, which are also shown in the photos, have reinforced the political leverage of Moscow to coerce Ukraine, current and say former officials.

“They have adequately deployed the various elements of air power that would be needed to establish air superiority over the battlefield and directly support ground troops,” said Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. Air Force general who serve as NATO’s top military commander when Russian forces seized Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

General Breedlove said the photos indicated that Russian units were unprepared to attack immediately, but said Moscow has multiple options for taking military action.

The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, made an assessment similar to that of Congress last week, noting that Russian deployments could be aimed at intimidating the Ukrainian government and sending a message to the Biden administration.

“This accumulation has gotten to the point where, it is known, it could also provide the basis for a limited military incursion,” Burns told the Senate Information Committee. “So not just the United States, but our allies need to be taken very seriously.”

Biden administration officials have been preparing options to provide lethal and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine in the event of a Russian attack. Options include anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-aircraft systems, according to a person familiar with the deliberations, although they have not yet been presented to President Biden to make a decision. The administration is also considering more economic sanctions against Russia, administration officials say.

Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said last week that the country was conducting exercises in response to North Atlantic Treaty Organization movements that “threaten Russia” and has accused Ukrainian authorities of trying. cause tensions.

Satellite photos were taken between March 27 and April 16 by Maxar Technologies,

a satellite and imaging trading company that provides extensive imaging in the United States and other Western governments. Dan Jablonsky, the company’s chief executive, said he made the unclassified photos public because of a commitment to transparency, but that the U.S. government had not asked him to do so.

“I think it removes some of the uncertainty and doubt about what’s really going on in a pretty critical region of the world,” Jablonsky said.

US officials estimate that there are currently up to 80,000 Russians in the Crimea and near Ukraine. That’s almost double the Russian force deployed there about four weeks ago, officials said. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell put the number at more than 100,000, which he said would increase the force the Russians deployed when they seized Crimea in 2014 and sent troops east. of Ukraine.

According to a U.S. military officer, the Russian force currently includes 48 battalion tactical groups, made up of several hundred soldiers and officers each. U.S. intelligence, however, has yet to see all the logistical capabilities and support units that would generally be used for a major border assault on Ukraine, including ammunition reserves and deployable hospitals, said the official.

The Su-34 aircraft at the Morozovsk base in eastern Ukraine had been moved to the flight line, according to satellite photos, a step that indicates a higher state of readiness.

“This is not a demonstration. It is preparing for a major offensive, “said Phillip Karber, president of the Potomac Foundation, an American think tank that has traveled extensively to the Ukrainian military front.” I am not predicting an attack, but in time. two weeks will be an option at the discretion of the Russians. “

Other experts say Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to pressure Ukraine to resume water supplies to Crimea, which Kiev authorities cut off after the Kremlin annexed the peninsula.

“We cannot rule out that this accumulation is possibly a tool of coercion that Putin is using to get Ukraine to open the North Crimean water channel,” said Glen Howard, president of the Jamestown Foundation, a trend research center. conservative. “It’s a lot of military capability and we don’t know which direction the Russians will go.”

In Ukraine, the build-up of Russian troops has hinted at Mr Putin’s intentions for seven years in a conflict that has claimed more than 14,000 lives.

“In a few weeks they will be ready to have enough combat to pursue a military escalation. According to our estimates, its combined military strength will exceed 120,000 by then, “Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the newspaper in written comments.” We don’t know if Putin will decide to attack, but I’m sure will be willing to do so. “

Oleg Zhdanov, a reserve colonel in the Ukrainian army and a military analyst, said the fact that much of the build-up had been uncovered and captured on social media was a sign that Moscow’s main goal was politician. “Putin uses it to provoke a wave of panic,” Zhdanov said.

The situation can be a bit fluid. Satellite photos show a squadron of ground-based “Frogfoot” Su-25 aircraft and a pair of electronic warplanes that were observed in Maxar satellite images in mid-April. at an air base in Astrakhan, Russia, they marched to another camp On April 16, the Russian news agency TASS said the Su-25 had arrived in Crimea.

Biden, who spoke with Putin last week, has called on Russia to reduce tensions with Ukraine. Biden last week announced new sanctions against Moscow for electoral interference and the SolarWinds cyberattack. Moscow has denied involvement in the hacking and Russian officials have repeatedly denied interfering in U.S. elections.

Biden said he did not feel like climbing, but was willing to take firm action, if necessary.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan spoke Monday with his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev. U.S. and Russian statements about the conversation noted that the two officials had discussed the prospects of a meeting at the summit later this year between Mr Biden and Putin. Neither statement specifically mentioned Russian military buildup in Crimea and near Ukraine.

—Gordon Lubold in Washington and James Marson in Brussels contributed to this article.

Write to Michael R. Gordon at [email protected] and Georgi Kantchev at [email protected]