WASHINGTON (AP) – The Taliban face a frontal challenge to consolidate control of Afghanistan: money.
Despite its dominant military blitz over the past week, the Taliban did not have access to billions of dollars from their central bank and the International Monetary Fund that would keep the country afloat during a turbulent shake-up. These funds are largely controlled by US and international institutions, a possible leverage point as tense evacuations from Kabul’s capital airport take place. Tens of thousands of people remain to be evacuated before the August 31 deadline in the United States to withdraw their troops from the country.
But the Taliban also do not currently have the institutional structures to receive the money, a sign of the challenges it could face in trying to govern an economy that has been urbanized and tripled in size since its last government two decades ago. The shortfall could lead to an economic crisis that would only feed a deep humanity for the approximately 36 million Afghans who are expected to stay in the country.
“If they don’t have a job, they don’t feed themselves,” said Anthony Cordesman, who advised the U.S. government on Afghan strategy and works at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The Taliban must find an answer.”
Blocked funds are one of the few potential sources of pressure the U.S. government has on the Taliban. But Cordesman added, “To have a point of pressure, you have to be willing to negotiate in a way that the Taliban can accept.”
As of now, the Taliban government cannot access almost all of the $ 9 billion reserves of Afghanistan’s central bank, most of which are from the New York Federal Reserve. On August 23, Afghanistan also planned to access some $ 450 million from the International Monetary Fund, which has effectively blocked the release due to “lack of clarity” regarding the recognition of a new government. Afghan.
While the money would facilitate the Taliban government, government officials have indicated that it is unclear who the contact points in Afghanistan would be in financial matters. President Joe Biden he acknowledged that he does not know if the Taliban wants to be part of the wider global economy, which means it may be comfortable to go bottomless.
“I think they’re going through a kind of existential crisis over whether they want the international community to recognize them as a legitimate government,” Biden told ABC News on Wednesday. “I’m not sure they will.”
Even if the Taliban could get money from the IMF, Douglas Rediker, a member of the Brookings Institution, said the process “I think it would take at least months.” But it also anticipates that the United States will find a way to block the release of money through the IMF system.
“The U.S. still retains a lot of political strength in the economic, political, and global systems to twist some arms,” Rediker said. “The Taliban will not be popular.”
When the Taliban last ruled Afghanistan two decades ago, the average Afghan survived on less than a dollar a day. According to the World Bank, gross domestic product per capita has tripled during the war. Afghanistan obtained mobile phones, Coca-Cola and Airbnb listings, which need access to global economic institutions. The war effort also left the country heavily dependent on trade with imports of $ 8 billion a year, nearly ten times more than it exported.
The extent of the problem could be seen in the closed Afghan currency exchange market. Currency trading stopped on Sunday when the Taliban took control of Kabul. Without the exchange capacity or the support of dollars flowing into the country, the value of the Afghan currency could collapse, inflation could accelerate and the mix of violence and chaos could prolong.
Aminullah Amin, a currency changer, said on Friday that there is concern about the looters and the structure of the new government. This feeling of insecurity that Afghans feel would pass through the economy like a virus.
“We have not yet decided to reopen the markets.” said Amin, who witnessed the looting of a district police headquarters in northern Kabul after the capital was taken by the Taliban.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid reaffirmed on Thursday that the group wants to have good relations with other countries and will not allow Afghanistan to be the base of the attacks. But he said the Taliban would not tolerate any threat to “our principles and our independence.”
Laurel Miller, director of the crisis program’s Asian program Crisis Group, said Afghanistan remains “a very poor country suffering from a complex set of humanitarian problems and challenges.”
The Taliban still have access to revenue streams that sustained the insurgency, but that will not be enough for a centralized government that can claim more complete control of the country. The movement must balance its image globally by maintaining support among its own ranks, the ultra-conservative Muslim fighters who brought them to power.
“There is reason to think that when an impulse occurs, its internal dimensions will be prioritized over external dimensions,” Miller said.
The Taliban could be more successful with other nations eager to project influence in the region. China wants stability in Afghanistan and also maintains close relations with neighboring Pakistan, which has worked for a long time to shape events there. A 2010 U.S. government report estimated that Afghanistan contained about $ 1 trillion in metals and minerals, including lithium and rare earths that are valuable in an increasingly computerized world.
“I think a real question mark in the financial landscape is what China will do,” Miller said.
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AP reporters Tameem Akhgar contributed to this report from Istanbul and Joseph Krauss from Jerusalem.