As the elections approach, Germany welcomes Afghan refugees, for the time being

LONDON – German politicians have given a welcoming tone to Afghan refugees as voters prepare to choose a new chancellor next month, but experts warn that this could be short-lived.

In recent days, Germany, like many other Western countries, has been working to evacuate German and Afghan citizens who have supported its work on the ground for the past 20 years in Afghanistan.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has said Berlin could grant asylum to some 10,000 Afghans. Germany’s foreign office said on Wednesday that about 1,600 people had been evacuated since Monday, including Germans, Afghans and nationals from international partners.

However, the withdrawal of US and allied troops from Afghanistan and the consequent capture of the Taliban have sparked fears of a new wave of asylum seekers off the coast of Europe. The arrival of more than 1.2 million refugees in 2015, most fleeing the war in Syria, proved to be a tough and divisive issue for European leaders. This was particularly true in Germany, where nearly half a million refugees applied for asylum, according to the UN refugee agency.

At the time, Merkel was criticized for keeping German borders open to those fleeing for security, although she negotiated an intra-EU relocation plan designed to share the burden between member states.

However, Holger Schmieding, chief eurozone economist at Berenberg Bank, said this time the tone is different.

“These are people who worked for German forces or German aid agencies, and the number of eligible people seems to be very limited,” Schmieding told CNBC by email.

“There is not much positioning except to play the blame game. Even an AfD co-leader, Meuthen, admitted that Germany has a moral duty to fulfill those who worked for German forces in Afghanistan. Schmieding added, referring to Joerg. Meuthen, co-director of the far-right Alternative for Germany.

The party, known in Germany as AfD, has gained momentum in the wake of the 2015 refugee crisis and entered the German parliament for the first time in 2017.

The German government has been criticized for taking too long to address the crisis in Afghanistan. Even Merkel admitted that there had been “wrong assessments” of the situation.

“Among the parties currently represented in the Bundestag [Germany’s parliament], only two could credibly claim limited liability for the disaster in Afghanistan, ”Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at consulting firm Teneo, said in a note to clients.

He called the left-wing party, which voted against military interventions abroad, and the AfD, given its only recent presence in parliament. International troops entered Afghanistan in 2001, in direct response to the 9/11 attacks in the US

According to experts, Germany’s tone could change before Germany’s federal elections on September 26.

Once the former Afghan staff is received in Germany, “the AfD will likely go on to accuse the political center of risking another uncoordinated wave of migration, such as in 2015,” Nickel said.

He added that, “in the remaining weeks of the [political] during the campaign, AfD could still try to criticize the political center for trying to dodge the awkward debate over a potential crisis. “

This could lead to a change in the rhetoric of the ruling party of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany.

Schmieding said concerns about potential refugees could raise support for AfD, but only “slightly.”

The latest pre-election polls give the AfD 11% of the vote, compared to 12.6% in the 2017 federal election. The CDU Conservative Party is seen receiving 25% of the vote, less than in previous elections.

Its leader, and the most likely candidate to replace Merkel, Armin Laschet, has said that European nations should support Afghanistan’s neighboring countries in dealing with the high number of refugees, in an effort to avoid a similar crisis. to that of 2015.