The situation in Afghanistan (hundreds of thousands of people desperate to flee their country with few places to go and be safe and accepted) is just a sign of a future that will be shaped by a growing migration crisis.
Why it’s important: Whether due to violence, persecution, climate change or economic distress, the growing number of people will leave the only homes they have known in search of a safer and better life abroad, even all the while the policy of the destination countries is determined to accept them.
By numbers: Even before their government collapsed in the face of the U.S. military withdrawal, causing a madness for the safety of people who had worked with the U.S. and feared persecution by the Taliban, Afghans fled their country in large numbers. .
- According to UN data, 1.5 million Afghans fled to Pakistan in 2020, while another 780,000 escaped to neighboring Iran.
- This is just one part of a growing migration crisis around the world: officials on the southern U.S. border reported nearly 200,000 encounters with migrants in July, the highest monthly total in nearly two decades.
- The departures of ships of dangerous migrants from North Africa to southern Europe have increased in recent months and more than 1,100 people have died crossing the Mediterranean so far this year.
The big picture: By the end of 2020, 82.4 million people worldwide had been forcibly displaced, more than double the total in 2011.
- Almost half of them had been forced to leave their countries of origin, with the rest internally displaced.
- These numbers are likely to grow. According to a study last year, more than 1 billion people worldwide could be displaced by 2050 due to climate change and its destabilizing effects.
Between lines: A growing number of migrants and refugees are fleeing their homes at a time when international migration policy has become very negative.
- According to the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, last year less than 35,000 refugees out of 20.7 million were relocated to a new country, a fraction of 1%.
- Greece, which saw nearly a million refugees enter its territory after the 2015 Syrian crisis, is erecting a heavily guarded 25-kilometer-long fence along the border with Turkey to stop asylum seekers from ‘Afghanistan.
- In the United States, the Supreme Court on Tuesday blocked the Biden administration’s efforts to back former President Trump’s “Stay in Mexico” policy for asylum seekers arriving at the southern border.
Context: What is developing is one of the mega-trends of the 21st century: more people willing and often forced to leave their homes, and a colder reception in destination countries, including the US
- A recent Harvard / Harris poll found that 80% of Americans consider undocumented immigration a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” problem, while 64% believe the government should start stricter border policies to reduce border flow, leaving the political landscape with “incredibly polarized” immigration, notes Dick Burke, CEO of immigration services company Envoy Global.
- European leaders, fearing another populist backlash, are reluctant to confront Afghan refugees, and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell Fontelles recently said member states want to “not guarantee any movement large-scale migration to Europe ”.
- The pandemic led to unprecedented border closures around the world, which stifled both documented and undocumented migration, possibly establishing a template for future restrictions.
What they say: “If the world’s main political and economic track 20 years ago was from left to right, today it is open against closed,” says Alec Ross, a former U.S. diplomat and author of the upcoming book “The Raging 2020s.”
What follows: While politics and public opinion tend toward a closed world, other factors point to the need for more migration, not less.
- Low fertility rates mean that aging rich countries will need more people, although population growth continues in many of the countries that already generate migrants and asylum seekers.
- The economic benefits of immigrants, including asylum seekers, are real and the United States “will definitely need them if we compete economically with China,” writes economist Noah Smith.
The summary: A more open world may be the right one for altruistic and self-interested reasons, but to get there you need to dismantle physical and political barriers.