Joan Guaidó has no doubts that the opposition he leads in Venezuela would sweep in a possible election against President Nicolás Maduro, and there he leads his efforts in the negotiation process in Mexico: to compete with him as soon as possible .
Guaidó, 38, is recognized as president in charge of Venezuela by half a hundred countries, including the United States, which is unaware of Maduro’s re-election in 2018 as fraudulent.
“I’ve said it since day one (…). If Maduro is afraid to compete with me, or if anyone else … I have no problem,” he challenges. “The challenge, moreover, is for him to leave (power) and for me (the so-called interim government), and to be measured,” Guaidó said in an interview with AFP in his apartment in Caracas.
“The origin of the conflict is the non-election of 2018, the conflict is a usurpation in the Executive … an election schedule that transforms an election into a real solution to the conflict is part of the process, ”he reflects.
His biggest effort is focused on the presidential election, scheduled for 2024, going ahead as part of the dialogue table he started two weeks ago in Mexico, mediated by Norway and in which he uses it as a piece of change the progressive lifting of shrapnel from international sanctions that pressured the Maduro government to sit down to negotiate.
Would you be the candidate? “We will have a unitary candidate, a process of unity,” he replies.
The advancement of the presidential election for now is ruled out by Chavismo. The opposition has the possibility of calling for a recall referendum next year, when half of the president’s term is fulfilled.
“We can say that the presidential election, a recall referendum, would be a solution that addresses the non-election of 2018, which we owe to all Venezuelans,” he said.
He is confident that in “an election with confidence and a minimum of credibility (…) the democratic alternative 80-20, 70-30 would win”. “I have no doubt,” he insists, dismissing polls that illustrate a popularity coming in orris.
Gone are the days when he gathered tens of thousands of people at rallies across the country. The pandemic ended up cutting its already worn-out convening power. At his home, which serves as his office, he is accompanied by two assistants and a couple of escorts.
“No conditions”
When do you think this eventual presidential election should be held? “Already, in December … obviously as soon as possible,” Guaidó replies. “For Venezuelans, the presidential election is what resolves the conflict.”
He is skeptical but to participate in the elections scheduled for this year, of mayors and governors, organized by a new National Electoral Council (CNE) -with two opposition rectors- appointed as part of a previous internal negotiation process in Mexico .
“There are no conditions to call the event of the 21 (November) an election, so much so that we are discussing (in Mexico) political guarantees and conditions, electoral,” he says, calling “tutelage” the Current CNE.
But unlike previous elections, he avoids calling for abstention. “It will be a mix, seeking the greatest possible mobilization, organization and unity,” he points out without showing a clear stance.
Will you vote that day? “I have not decided yet”.
The November regional elections have highlighted the cracks in the opposition, with many leaders breaking ranks to begin campaigning in the face of the fierce machinery of Chavismo and its already defined candidates.
The deadline to register nominations expires on Sunday.
“Constant contact”
Guaidó says his contact with the United States is “constant” even with the government of Democrat Joe Biden, who while he has maintained the support given to him by his predecessor Donald Trump, does not share the strategy of the ‘all or nothing’.
It was Trump who led the international escalation to pressure the fall of Maduro, with sanctions including an oil embargo.
The punitive measures, unpopular among Venezuelans, have not reduced the power of the Chavista president, who maintains territorial control with the support of the armed forces, his main support, and allies such as China, Russia and Iran.
The Biden administration, for example, welcomed the appointment of the new CNE, and is handling the option of lifting some sanctions if Mexico’s negotiations prosper.
“For those who support Maduro there is no better option than an agreement” in Mexico “because it involves the progressive lifting of sanctions,” he points out. A possible failure of the negotiation “will deepen the conflict, there will be more pressure and more international support.”
Maduro last week called for a “direct dialogue” with Washington that includes the return of business managers to embassies in both countries.
For Guaidó, it is a “desperate cry for some kind of recognition”, the “solution” is a “free and fair” choice. “If the regime or Maduro wants some kind of recognition or legitimacy, it has to win it with votes,” he concludes.