It’s hard to believe, but we’ve reached the last month of the 2021 regular season. (Well, not counting those three days in October that are part of the regular campaign …)
It’s also hard to imagine that just a month ago, the Braves were 4.0 games away from a leading Mets team in the East of the National League and the Rays and Red Sox had big advantages over the Yankees in the East of the American League.
Things can change from one moment to the next and it is enough to define, as if we have a very captivating end to the season.
Below I present 6:00 forecasts for the final stretch of the regular campaign.
1. The Dodgers will win the National League West.
This will be the only divisional race in which there will be a change of pointer in the last month. (Congratulations to the Rays, White Sox, Stars, Braves and Brewers.) This will be one of the few times a team wins 100 games in the regular season and finishes in second place in its division. (It would be the fifth time it would happen in the divisional era and the first time since the Yankees won 100 in 2018, but they finished second behind a Red Sox team that won 108.)
The Giants don’t deserve to be a second-place team and that prognosis shouldn’t be interpreted as a lack of respect for them. The depth that Sant Francesc has built and the way they have handled the loads have taken them further than we anticipated.
But the Dodgers are a better team, in large part because they added Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the change deadline. Los Angeles arrived on Thursday with a +70 career spread in the second half, compared to the Giants ’+26. The Dodgers have struggled to gain ground in the National League West because St. Francis, who won nine straight games before losing two of the three games in Atlanta, has not taken his foot off the accelerator. But starting with their three-game series in San Francisco this weekend, the Dodgers are going to work out the hardest of their nine consecutive divisional crowns.
2. Forget a Wildcard Game between Yankees and Red Sox.
There are too many people dreaming of this showdown (“Gerrit Cole vs. Chris Get Out!”) To convince me it’s actually going to happen. Something is going to stop it, because that’s how baseball is.
Maybe the Yankees outscore the Rays to win the Eastern title, though I personally doubt Wander Franco and company will allow that to happen.
Most likely the Red Sox will be displaced by another team. They could be the Tiles with a healthy George Springer and a lot of games against the Orioles. It would be a great story.
Or, it could be the Mariners, who still have a chance, mathematically, to reach the postseason for the first time in 20 years. It would also be a great story.
But I’m going to go the easy way and I’m going to predict that the Yankees and the Athletics will face off in the American League Wildcard Game for the second time in four years.
3. We will need a tiebreaker to define the second National League Wildcard.
Praying for a tiebreaker match that will not happen: One of the best traditions.
But it is possible that it will happen this year. The Reds and Fathers arrived in September face to face, with the Cardinals, Philis, and – if we want to be extremely generous – the Mets still in contention.
Philadelphia could still put pressure on the Braves east of the National, as well as Cincinnati and San Diego at the Old Circuit Wildcard, but JT Realmuto’s injury is making a big impact on a club that was already inconsistent. . In New York we give it a thumbs down.
My glass ball sees the Phillies still in the fight over the last week, but it will affect them quite a bit of a recent defeat in the final innings against the Marlins. The Reds will take a one-game lead on the final day, but are punished by the Pirates, while the Friars outscore the Giants for the Dodgers to secure the division and force a tiebreaker on Monday.
And thanks to the tiebreaker …
4. Fernando Tatis Jr. will make history.
With 36 home runs, the Dominican torpedo boat arrives in the last month with a big advantage among the leaders of the Old Circuit. The closest are tied with 30. And with 24 scams, Tatis is two behind leader Trea Turner.
While Game 163 won’t come out in San Diego’s favor, the statistics count as a regular season game. And for that, Tatis will use the extra play to steal second base and beat Turner. Thus, the Quisqueian will become just the second player of the Modern Era – joining Chuck Klein of the Filis (1932) – to lead his circuit in both home runs and scams.
This will make it easier to vote for JMV from the Old Circuit.
Speaking of easy choices.
5. Shohei Ohtani will hit 50 baby shots.
He arrived in September at 42. But only nine of these fly swimmers have arrived since Ohtani decided to take part in the Jonrones Festival, being an opener pitcher and first batsman, a salesman at the stadium and even an organist at the Game of Thrones festivities. ‘Stars. He has a bit of fatigue, so no one can blame him. Therefore, 50 bambinazos could be unattainable.
But we dream big: Ohtani will not only become the first serpentinero to lead the Majors in home runs, but will also do so with a round number. Babe Ruth didn’t get to 50 (in fact, not even 30 or 40) but until she became a full-time position player. Ohtani still has a realistic chance of doing this and at the same time leading his club effectively.
This is completely awesome.
Speaking of awesome …
6. We will see another non-hitter.
As it stands, the eight non-players this season (not counting the two in seven games) tie the historic record set in 1884. But just as Grover Cleveland defeated James G. Blaine in a hotly contested U.S. presidential election. 1884, the 2021 season will take the only position at the top of the hierarchy unsuccessfully in the last month by the thinnest margin with a no-no more.
(I would say who will throw the ninth, but I don’t want to ruin Marco Gonzales of the Mariners surprise).