This forecast, published on Wednesday, predicts 25% less doses compared to the July forecast. The new projection sparked a new call from the WHO for rich countries to stop giving impulses until more people around the world could get the first doses of vaccine.
Currently, 330 million doses have been delivered to untreated countries through COVAX and 230 million have been delivered to member countries.
In what the report considers “the most likely scenario” for vaccine supply by the end of the year, more than a billion more doses will be available between September and the end of the year.
“We expect to have 1.1 billion more doses available for delivery by the end of the year,” Dr. Seth Berkley, CEO of GAVI, one of the groups that make up COVAX, said in a media briefing. Doses will be targeted at 92 lower-income countries.
This prediction would place the total availability of vaccines throughout 2021 at 1.4 billion doses, with 1.2 billion available for low-income countries.
The most recent July forecast predicted 1.8 billion vaccines available in 2021. The new COVAX analysis cited export restrictions in India, manufacturing problems with AstraZeneca facilities, delays in Novavax regulation and pending d approval of vaccine by Chinese biopharmaceutical company Clover as a driver of decline. addition to production problems with the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
“Although production has resumed, the increase in manufacturing combined with the delay in orders for other bilateral customers has led to delays in deadlines and reduced volumes that will be made available to COVAX in 2021.”
According to the report, Johnson & Johnson is expected to supply 180 million of the missed doses between the July forecast and the September forecast.
The forecast indicates that more doses will be available from two sources: an expected gain of 20 million doses of Sinopharm from China and an additional 95 million doses in the form of donations.
“I will not be silent”
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reiterated his call for rich nations to refrain from increasing Covid-19 vaccines until they are available disparate for the rest of the world, this time calling on countries that wait at least until the end of the year, rather than at the end of September.
“A month ago I called for a global moratorium on booster doses, at least until the end of September, to prioritize vaccination of the world’s most at-risk people who have not yet received their first dose. There have been few changes in the world situation since then, “Tedros said during a media briefing on Wednesday.
“Therefore, today I call for an extension of the moratorium, at least until the end of the year, to allow all countries to vaccinate at least 40% of their population.”
Tedros acknowledged that third doses may be needed for those at higher risk who see their immunity decline, “but for now, we don’t want widespread use of reinforcements for fully vaccinated healthy people.”
“From the beginning we have been calling for equity in vaccines, not after the richest countries have been served. Low- and middle-income countries are not the second or third priority. health, the elderly and other risk groups have the same right to be protected, ”Tedros said.
“I will not be silent when companies and countries that control the global supply of vaccines think that the world’s poor should be satisfied with the remnants.”
But White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki reiterated the Biden administration’s view that the United States may offer Covid-19 booster shots to Americans this fall while working at the same time to provide vaccines to people from all over the world who have not yet received any shots.
“Our view is that this is a false choice,” Psaki told reporters at a White House briefing. “And the United States has given and shared about 140 million doses with more than 90 countries, more than all the other countries put together.”
However, Dr. Bruce Aylward, senior adviser to the Tedros, supported the WHO analysis.
“How can we have this commitment from the most powerful countries in the world, from the world’s producing countries, from the countries with the world’s largest coverage, from the world’s manufacturers, and then we have to lower the forecast? Point, we have to try to get all stops to try to manage the situation, ”Aylward said during the briefing.
“Should there be a moratorium on drivers? Absolutely. Should there be a moratorium on vaccinating people at low risk of serious illness or death? Absolutely,” he said.
“Our role is to make sure that we present the strongest possible arguments and the way out of this pandemic, and the way out of this is a moratorium, and it extends because since the last time we asked for it, the gap heritage has increased, the amount of vaccine available to low-income countries has fallen. “