The Girl could reappear before the end of 2021, just five months after the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared the phenomenon over, due to an above-average temperature forecast despite the cooling effect that produce their recent step.
The WMO estimates that there is a 40% chance that the Girl – which corresponds to the large-scale cooling of surface waters in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific – will reappear after her presence from the August 2020 to May this year.
“But despite the La Niña phenomenon, which usually has the effect of cooling the climate, temperatures measured on land should be above average between September and November, especially in the northern hemisphere,” the organization stresses.
The impact of the Girl, which occurs every two to seven years, is felt in much of the planet in the form of variations in atmospheric pressure, winds and precipitation, with effects generally inverse to that of another phenomenon, the child.
But climate change caused by human activities influences these phenomena.
“Climate change of anthropogenic origin amplifies the effects of natural phenomena such as La Nena and increasingly influences our weather conditions, which especially translates into more intense heat and drought (and the associated risk of forest fires ), as well as record rainfall and floods, “said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
“We have been tragically witnessing in recent months in almost every region of the world. Climate change is increasing the severity and frequency of disasters,” he stressed, alluding to both the gigantic fires that affected the west. of the United States and Siberia such as Hurricane Ida that devastated the southern United States before leaving New York and its neighboring states underwater due to very heavy rainfall.
The WMO said that if the Girl reappears it is expected to be weak, and above-average sea surface temperatures should influence air temperatures for the period between September and November 2021.
According to the organization, temperatures would be above average in central and eastern North America, the far north of Asia and the Arctic, as well as in central and eastern Africa. and southern South America.
There is a higher probability of below-normal rainfall in many areas of southern South America.
A large part of the Mediterranean as far as the Arabian Peninsula and Central Asia, and southern Central and Eastern Africa would also record lower than normal rainfall.