China’s objective rumors of plunging into Afghanistan are exaggerated: experts

One of the first things many Western experts predicted when the chaotic withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan broke out was the replacement in this power vacuum by China, a critical and strategic opponent of the United States.

Afghanistan has trillions of dollars worth of untapped mineral resources and is in dire need of infrastructure investments, making it in theory a key ground for the China-Road Expansion Initiative. In addition, China is one of the few countries and the only economic superpower to have established friendly relations so far with the Taliban, which shocked the world in early August by overtaking Afghanistan in a matter of days.

In what many see as a symbolic mockery in the West, Chinese state officials have punished Washington and its 20-year war and cautiously welcomed the Taliban’s announcement of its new FBI-wanted terrorist government. forts.

“This has put an end to more than three weeks of anarchy in Afghanistan and is a necessary step for the restoration of internal order and post-war reconstruction in Afghanistan,” Wang Wenbin told reporters. , a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said at a briefing on Wednesday. a transcript published by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

But beyond the statements, many regional experts are unconvinced by China’s enthusiasm to enter the war-ravaged Central Asian state on the western border.

China has long distrusted Islamic extremism in the far west. It is also determined not to fall into the same traffic jams in which the Soviet Union and the United States were absorbed by Afghanistan, analysts say.

“China is interested in the economic commitment to Afghanistan and the extension of its belt and road, including the reconstruction and investment in untapped mineral resources of the landlocked country,” Ekta Raghuwanshi, an analyst, told CNBC of Stratfor Rat in South Asia.

“However,” he warned, “it would not invest substantially at any time, given security concerns in Afghanistan and proximity to the restorative Chinese province of Xinjiang,” he said, referring to Uighur militants and the resurgence of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement.

And while China has made clear the Taliban’s approval, that doesn’t mean it is prepared to commit to doing business with them.

“We have no evidence that China sees the Taliban as a safer partner,” Maximilian Hess, a Central Asian Fellow of the Eurasian Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC.

“He is well aware of security risks and attacks on Chinese infrastructure in Pakistan by Islamist groups have increased in recent years,” including one recently in August, Hess said. China risks angering local Afghans with its presence and Beijing “recognizes the tribal reality of Afghanistan and that the Taliban have many sub-factions that allow them to operate with near-autonomy in many areas,” he added.

Therefore, even if the Taliban – who have adopted China’s diplomatic openings and celebrate the prospect of their investment – give Chinese investors a guarantee of security, the group does not necessarily have control over other militants and tribes. across the country of about 40 million people.

What Beijing does not publicly express, analysts say, is its concern about the impact of the U.S. withdrawal, as does Russia.

As journalist Sreemoy Talukdar wrote this week in the Indian Firstpost press, China “may have been rejoicing at the inconvenience of the United States during the baffling departure … but so far it had been quite content with the role of the The United States as a guarantor of security alongside an authentic region the presence of witches of terrorism and ethnic insurrection. “

The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment from CNBC.

The Taliban continue to be sanctioned by the US, the EU and the United Nations. This presents an obvious legal and financial risk for anyone who wants to do business with the group.

“Any agreement signed with the Taliban involves obvious political risks and sanctions,” said Jonathan Wood, deputy director of global research at Control Risks.

China has proven to be able to navigate U.S. sanctions in the past, major Iranian oil seized thanks to the use of things like “ghost ships.” But some Chinese companies have been hit by U.S. sanctions, and in the case of Afghanistan, security risks make pushing that border even less attractive.

“Western sanctions mean that even if the Taliban are recognized (by China), there are very few banks or financial institutions that will deal with the Taliban government as long as those sanctions are maintained,” Hess said.

The mineral wealth of Afghanistan is impressive. The country is above 60 tons of copper reserves, more than 2.2 million tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth minerals, coveted for use in electronic products such as lithium , which has high demand for batteries for electric vehicles, 1.6 billion. crude barrels, 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and another 500 million barrels of natural gas liquids, according to U.S. geological surveys.

But so far it has proved almost impossible to reach.

In 2008, a consortium of Chinese companies contracted a 30-year lease for Afghanistan’s largest copper project, called Mes Aynak. So far, 13 years later, no work has begun on the mining project.

This is due to a combination of security concerns, state corruption and infrastructure restrictions, although the estimated 11.08 million tonnes of copper would be worth more than $ 100 billion at current London Metal prices. Exchange.

“Afghanistan’s limited infrastructure (energy, roads, rails), difficult terrain and landless geography will continue to hamper the development of natural resources,” Stratfor’s Wood said.

Despite all the limitations, these have not necessarily stopped China in the past, as evidenced by its investments in Sudan and Congo, said Samuel Ramani, an international relations tutor at Oxford University.

Faced with the stagnation of their previous Afghan companies, “I think the Chinese involvement in Afghanistan could be very similar to their alleged reconstruction plans in Syria,” Ramani said. “A lot of speculation, but little substance.”