Covid Delta coronavirus outbreak 19: Level 3 move would be “very risky” with mysterious cases in Middlemore

There are fears that people who test positive after visiting Middlemore Hospital may be “the tip of a larger iceberg” of Covid-19 cases circulating in the community.

The Ministry of Health announced Saturday night that three people had tested positive after presenting to Middlemore Hospital for unrelated reasons, including a five-month-old baby.

It is not known how any of the three were exposed to the virus.

Professor Michael Plank, a model for Te Pūnaha Matatini Covid-19, said he was concerned that cases would appear without a clear link to the current Auckland cluster.

The math teacher said the likelihood of people showing up at Middlemore for unrelated reasons and going on to give Covid a positive was, “in sight … very, very small.”

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“The fact that it has happened on several occasions suggests that there may be a hidden cluster.”

This was based on information currently available to the public, but did not rule out officials finding a link between cases through efforts to locate contacts or genome sequencing.

The last update of locations of interest (at noon today) has shown 133 events involving 96 locations. There is a small change from 1oam: a slight adjustment for a September 2 visit to Pak’nSave Clendon Park, where the time window was reduced to 15: 40-16: 10.

The Council of Ministers meets tomorrow to decide on the setting of the alert level for Auckland.

While the city was expected to move to level 3 soon, Plank said it would be “very risky” according to current information.

“If there are still a significant number of mysterious cases that have no epidemiological link, this will be cause for concern, because if we are seeing the tip of a larger iceberg, then moving to level 3 will obviously allow us to grow much faster “.

Even some undetected cases could see the outbreak spiral to level 3.

“The danger would be that it would go to alert level 3, which would allow the virus to start spreading, but it could take a couple of weeks before you notice it,” he said.

This was due to the lag between getting infected and getting tested.

“At that point we could have a lot of cases on our hands again, so it could really push us back.”

Auckland Mayor Phil Goff told RNZ that the rise in cases (after last week’s fall) was a concern.

He didn’t expect the city to go down a level in Monday’s announcement, despite excellent vaccination rates, including the 26,000 people in Auckland who got their look yesterday.

“It seems likely that there may be one more delay in exiting alert level 4. But there really is no alternative if we want to clear the transmission.

“We’ve been making the sacrifice now for almost four weeks and we have to keep going.”

Directed test key to exit level 4

The Ministry of Health has said it wants to see 7,000 tests a day. Plank agreed with that number, but said the right people needed to be targeted.

Current figures include MIQ workers and essential workers such as truck drivers who have to cross the Auckland borders. This was important, but I wanted everyone with symptoms to be tested, even if they were mild and even if the person had been vaccinated.

“We know the vaccine reduces the likelihood of you getting infected and showing symptoms, but it’s not a guarantee,” he said.

Despite the mysterious cases, Plank believed that our Level 4 configurations were correct, confirmed by the strong downward trend in cases over the past week.

“But [level 4] it has to be accompanied by really good evidence to make sure we find everything there is. Then our contact tracking system can get up and running and do its thing, because it’s also an important part of the answer. “

The most optimistic scenario was to find an epidemiological link between the current mysterious cases.

“If that happens, and we also decrease the number of infectious cases in the community … and we have good evidence, so we are confident that nothing is missing, then we could be in a position to set aside alert level.”