Vladimir Putin increases his military influence in Africa with official agreements, but also with mercenaries and paramilitaries

Vladimir Putin, with the fixed goal of restoring and consolidating Russia as a world power, advances its tabs from the geopolitical board in Africa, Where it increasingly strengthens its military influence to the detriment of Western leaders.

While the United States has promised to revive its economic and trade commitments in Africa, the Joe Biden government is proposing less international intervention and a decrease in troops, making its presence more strategic than active. However, Moscow has been building military alliances with a growing profile: only in the last two months has it signed military cooperation agreements with Nigeria and Ethiopia, the two most populous nations in Africa, and has it strengthened its ties with other countries such as Libya or Mali. These are, in several cases, nations that have cooled their relations with the West.

In 2019, at the first Russia-Africa Summit held in Sochi, Putin promised that Russia would not participate in “a new ‘distribution’ of the continent’s wealth,” but would bet on “competition for cooperation with Africa.” . The second meeting is scheduled for 2022, but in the meantime the Kremlin is advancing its relations with food and medical care, in addition to trade and military agreements.

The prestigious Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates that Africa accounted for 18% of Russian arms exports between 2016 and 2020. And every opportunity Washington leaves open is a window through which Russia tries to enter.

In July, Reuters reported that the US Congress halted a $ 1 billion arms sales project in Nigeria over allegations of human rights abuses by the government. It was not even a month before Russia signed an agreement with the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari to supply military equipment, training and technology to Nigerian forces.

In the case of Ethiopia, the European Union withdrew its election observers in June alleging “continued violence across the country, human rights violations and political tensions, harassment of media workers and members of the opposition detained “. Russia sent his men after a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Ethiopian counterpart Demeke Mekonnen.

Advances are nothing new. Already in 2018, under the government of Donald Trump, the then national security adviser of the United States, John Bolton, pointed out the “Russia’s expansionist influence throughout Africa“, So he urged Washington to maintain a foothold on the continent.

But Russia is also advancing through unofficial channels, through mercenaries not recognized by the state who have provided direct assistance to the governments of Libya and the Central African Republic, according to the UN. The Kremlin insists on denying ties to the Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization that, according to the UN, helps human rights abuses in the region.

In the case of France, with a long colonial history on the continent, and which is still the country with the largest number of troops in the region, its image is deteriorating and its influence is diminishing.

In April, French President Emmanuel Macron supported a military-led transition in Chad from Chilean envoy Idriss Déby, who died in combat with rebel forces in April, to his son. This violated the country’s constitution and provoked anti-French protests and scenes of vandalism against multinational companies.

His perspective was different in the case of Mali: when Colonel Assimi Goita established the military government, Macron denounced the coup and suspended a joint military operation with the Malian army. Subsequent protests were also hostile towards France, while Russian flags and posters were seen.

“Paris is inconsistent in its treatment of friendly regimes, consenting to an unconstitutional transfer of power to Chad, but taking a tougher line after a coup in Mali,” said Louw Nel, chief political analyst at NKC African Economic, in statements collected by CNBC.

“Given the clear negative trend of political stability in Mali, there are reasons to consider the danger of ending up resembling the Central African Republic, where the weak government of President Faustin-Archange Touadéra it is maintained essentially thanks to the Russian muscle: The mercenaries of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group, “Nel warned.

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