Last week, when anti-vaccine protesters received a handful of gravel, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau joined an illustrious list of political leaders to whom disgruntled citizens have thrown things. His father, former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, was thrown rocks (and tomatoes and eggs) at the train car in the early 1980s.
But the gravel incident, which sparked allegations of assault with a weapon against the protester, he has put the image of a prime minister on the defensive at the forefront of an election that, for many, is unwanted and has so far had no coherent theme.
Trudeau called a quick election in late August, prompting complaints that the country would vote during the fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic. He defended the decision and said that after suffering a deadly pandemic, Canadians should have their say on the future of the country.
“Having spent 17 months of nothing like we have never experienced, Canadians deserve to choose what the next 17 months, the next 17 years and beyond will be like. And I know we have the right plan, the right team and the right leadership. to fulfill that moment, “he said.” So to the other parties: Explain why you don’t think Canadians should choose? Why don’t you think this is a crucial moment? ”
The initial response was a collapse of the polls for the incumbent prime minister, who is seeking his third term after six years in office.
Days before the country votes, numerous polls suggest that most Canadians do not believe elections are necessary. And Trudeau now follows Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, a former Air Force pilot, at an average of nearly two points in national polls.
O’Toole, who has campaigned for middle-class roads with an emphasis on workers’ rights, has argued that Trudeau’s political ambitions in parliament – not the country’s health – are the reason Canadians are facing his second federal election in two years.
“Leadership is about putting others first, not yourself,” O’Toole said during the only debate in English.
Despite his stumble at the polls, however, Trudeau’s political destiny is not necessarily tied to the nature of public horse racing. Conservative support is stronger in areas such as Alberta and Saskatchewan, where fewer seats can be won. By contrast, liberals are doing well in seat-rich provinces like Ontario and Quebec. In 2019, for example, the Liberal Party won 157 of the 338 seats in parliament, despite losing the popular vote to the Conservatives by 1.2%, or 220,449 votes. The Conservatives only got 121 seats.
And with the first days of the campaign during the summer holidays, most voters have recently begun to pay attention to the incredibly short 36-day campaign, giving Trudeau a chance to save his chances of a third victory when the ballot boxes on September 20th.
In recent weeks, a wave of protests – some of which have forced the cancellation of the prime minister’s public events – have drawn attention to a virulent anti-vaccine movement, as well as the growing influence of the far-right People’s Party. Canadian, supporters are props of the protests.
Led by former Conservative cabinet minister Maxime Bernier (from whom he recently received an egg), the party has campaigned for years on an anti-immigrant and Islamophobic populist platform, with little electoral success.
But months of public closures have given the party a chance to channel growing frustrations, largely among male voters.
“[The People’s party] has adopted this anti-vaccine, anti-blocking and anti-mask platform and has connected a more traditional and very straightforward agenda. And that has given them a boost in the polls that we haven’t really seen before, ”said Andrew McDougall, a political science professor at the University of Toronto. “Whether or not those who support the popular party will run on election day is an open question. We don’t know what effect this match will have: people are still trying to make sense of it. “
The PPC still has low electoral prospects, even at best, but it has overtaken the Green Party, which is mired in political struggles.
“O’Toole is probably suspicious that he may be losing votes at the edge of the People’s Party. And that is what he will want to keep an eye on. But he will lose more votes if he decides to adopt the right-wing agenda.”
Feeling the opportunity to change the narratives of the campaign, Trudeau has repeatedly attacked O’Toole’s refusal to adopt vaccine warrants as Covid-19 cases increase and has tried to link the Conservative leader to vaccine protests. .
“Shame on you, Erin O’Toole,” Trudeau said after protesters stopped him. “We need to condemn these people, we need to correct them, use their voices and add them to those of us who understand that vaccines are the way to get through this pandemic.”
O’Toole has repeatedly condemned the protests, but has been haunted by questions from reporters about unvaccinated members of his own party. Although the party has said it encourages vaccines, it has stopped supporting a mandate, rather than suggesting that the decision should be a personal choice.
Although the protests have given his campaign something that was missing, said Aaron Wherry, a veteran CBC political journalist and author of Promise and Danger: Justin Trudeau in power.
After an event was canceled due to protests, Trudeau met with reporters later that night.
“He went to the media and talked about the protests. And it was the first time he had the feeling of getting some real energy. said Wherry. “Until then, it felt like I was taking an idea or a narrative in this campaign. It seemed like the first time the step was taken.
When Trudeau lost the parliamentary majority in 2019, party leaders gently pulled him out of the spotlight.
But the downing of a plane full of Iranian Canadians, national protests against the pipeline and a global pandemic led to its withdrawal from public view.
Two years later, Trudeau is in the same position as before the last election: in the face of accusations from progressive voters that his government has not done enough on social issues and climate change and a vote that will likely be fought over social issues.
“He called an election because he wants a majority. And he knows exactly what rides [electoral districts] should turn around to get this to happen, “said Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University.” And so national polls don’t necessarily mean a lot, as long as the seats join the way he wants. “
A weak result for the Liberals on September 20, however, could increase the intermediation of power in parliament.
In 2019, Jagmeet Singh, leader of the left-wing New Democrat party, ruled out working with the Conservatives. This time, he has expressed more openness in reducing agreements with current leader O’Toole, who shares a focus on affordability and workers ’rights.
But Singh and Trudeau are more natural allies and, despite having fired in the most recent debate, are more closely aligned in their progressive policies.
A narrow victory on September 20, even if it means losing seats in parliament, could help Trudeau consolidate a legacy with Singh’s help, including the provision of low-cost extended childcare services, a promise that the party has fulfilled for a long time. Says Wherry.
Trudeau’s climate plans, despite being attacked during the most recent debate, have won praise from economists and a former Green Party leader. who called “bold and thoughtful.”
Before his 2015 election, Trudeau was able to turn the tiredness of conservative politics – and the hope of a new way of doing politics – into a surprise parliamentary majority. Shortly afterwards, the election of Donald Trump as president offered the perfect counterpoint to Trudeau’s image as a progressive leader.
But the forces that pushed him to the highest office in the country (his promises of change, his youthful appearance and his fame) could be working against him. All political leaders, especially incumbents, inevitably face voter fatigue.
“Not only do you go out to make promises and talk about the great things you will do, you have to stand up for everything that has happened in the last six years,” Wherry said. “Inevitably, there is only wear and tear. No matter how much the pandemic has increased and restored its image, gravity cannot be resisted. “