LONDON – When Prime Minister Boris Johnson stumbled on his initial response to the coronavirus pandemic, his political fortunes faltered, returning quickly thanks to Britain’s surprisingly effective vaccine implementation.
With his popularity now dwindling again (this time after an unfulfilled promise not to raise taxes), Johnson hopes history will repeat itself.
On Tuesday he announced a campaign to offer booster vaccines to people 50 and older, as well as first shots to three million children, ages 12 to 15, reiterating their vote to prevent future blockades.
If the winter brings an increase in new cases, however, it could reintroduce the mandatory use of masks, deploy vaccine passports and urge workers to stay home, if possible, according to what the government calls the his “plan B.”
“We’re now in a situation where so many people have some degree of immunity, the smallest changes in the way we ask people to behave can have a bigger impact,” Johnson said at a news conference. .
For now, the Prime Minister is confident of a redoubled vaccination campaign to protect the British health service and not save it from having to order new closures that will depress the economy and infuriate a noisy group of lawmakers.
“The bounce of the vaccine helped him the first time and if the reinforcement plan (which will be a massive story in British politics) goes well and he is able to say that the launch will be planned, that might help him,” he said. say Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at the University of Kent.
But Goodwin added: “He is certainly vulnerable in terms of his internal criticism.”
For a leader who often seems to defy political gravity, the risks are high because, for the first time in months, poll scores are slashing for Mr Johnson’s Conservative party. Last week he announced plans to raise taxes and there are growing doubts about his promise to “level up” economically disadvantaged areas.
There are also indications that some of the new voters Mr Johnson attracted in the 2019 election could be moving away. “His presidency doesn’t seem to have currently fulfilled the things these voters want,” Professor Goodwin said.
It was a funding crisis approaching health and social care programs that forced Mr. Johnson to break his word and agree to raise taxes on workers, employers and some investors. This has not only jeopardized his party’s reputation for low taxation, but has also infuriated several prominent party donors.
According to a recent opinion poll conducted by YouGov, support for the Conservatives fell by five points, to 33 percent, with a 35 percent point from the Labor Party that put it in the lead for the first time since January. .
Part of Mr Johnson’s difficulty is that while polls generally show that the British public favors strict measures to contain the virus, blocking restrictions are anathema to a noisy libertarian wing of its own Conservative party.
Thus, although the government did not rule out the possibility of restricting the restrictions, it made it clear that they would be the last resort after exhausting the “basic closure” measures, such as the mandatory use of masks or the passport of vaccine.
On Tuesday, Johnson highlighted the success of the vaccination campaign, which he said produced “one of the freest societies and one of the most open economies in Europe.” He added: “That’s why we are now continuing with our strategy.”
Public health experts generally backed Mr Johnson’s announcements, although some noted that Britain, as usual, seemed to delay other countries on issues such as vaccinating young people or encouraging the use of face masks.
“They always get there, right after what they should be doing,” said Devi Sridhar, head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh.
He said Britain was “going in the same direction as other countries, but with a significant delay” in vaccinating those aged 12 to 15, drawing up contingency plans for the mandatory use of vaccine masks and passports. and increase testing to get the country through. which will probably be a difficult winter.
Monday’s decision to vaccinate children up to the age of 12 was controversial, although many other countries, including the United States, France, Italy and the Netherlands, began doing so months ago. The British government’s advisory group, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Vaccination, had previously concluded that the health benefits of people aged 12 to 15 were marginal. This sparked a debate about the ethics of vaccinating children to prevent the spread of a virus that poses a health risk to the adults they live with and meet.
On Monday, medical chiefs in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland argued that by reducing school disruption, a vaccination campaign would bring other benefits to young people.
Similarly, the decision on the drivers places Britain among a growing group of countries that offer additional traits to their own citizens before many people in large parts of the world have even received a dose, provoking criticism from David Nabarro. , a special envoy to Covid. the World Health Organization.
Understand vaccine and mask mandates in the US
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- Vaccine rules. On August 23, the Food and Drug Administration granted full approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine for people 16 years of age and older, paving the way for an increase in mandates in both the sector. public as in private. Private companies have increasingly demanded vaccinations from employees. These warrants are legally permitted and have been confirmed in judicial recusals.
- Mask rules. In July, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that all Americans, regardless of vaccination status, wear masks in public places covered within areas with outbreaks, an investment of the guide offered to the May. See where the CDC guidelines would apply and where states have instituted their own mask policies. The battle for masks has become contentious in some states, with some local leaders defying state bans.
- University and universities. More than 400 colleges and universities require students to be vaccinated against Covid-19. Almost all are in states that voted for President Biden.
- Schools. Both California and New York City have introduced immunization mandates for educational staff. A survey published in August found that many American parents of school-age children oppose mandatory vaccinations for students, but gave more support to mask mandates for students, teachers, and staff members who they do not receive their shots.
- Hospitals and medical centers. Many hospitals and major health systems require employees to have a Covid-19 vaccine, citing an increase in the number of cases fed by the Delta variant and stubbornly low vaccination rates in their communities, even within of their labor force.
- New York. Workers and customers must demonstrate vaccination for indoor food, gyms, performances, and other indoor situations, although compliance does not begin until Sept. 13. Teachers and other education workers in the city’s vast school system must have at least one vaccine. dose before September 27, with no weekly testing option. City hospital workers must also receive a vaccine or be tested weekly. There are similar rules for New York State employees.
- At the federal level. The Pentagon announced it would try to make coronavirus vaccines mandatory for the country’s 1.3 million active-duty soldiers “by mid-September.” President Biden announced that all civilian federal employees should be vaccinated against coronavirus or undergo periodic testing, social distancing, mask requirements, and restrictions on most travel.
“I am frankly upset, frankly, to know that Britain is taking boosters, when this will simply eliminate the very valuable vaccine of people from other parts of the world who cannot get their basic doses and therefore be at risk of death. he told Times Radio.
Mr Johnson’s question is whether vaccines and their light focus on other restrictions will be enough to prevent more draconian measures.
Graham Medley, an epidemiologist advising the government, said that in England, the rate of reproduction of the virus was around one, meaning that the epidemic was still circulating widely but not spreading exponentially. He said he did not expect the return of high levels of infection last January.
However, Professor Medley said divergent experiences in other parts of the UK, especially Scotland, where infection rates have fluctuated dramatically, demonstrated the unpredictability of the virus. None of the models predicted that cases in England would fall, rather than in July, he said.
“We are still waiting for the full effect of the reopening of schools and the return of work,” said Dr Medley, a professor of infectious disease modeling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Britain continues to report more than 25,000 cases of the virus a day and hospital admissions are close to 1,000 a day. This is enough to curb the National Health Service, which also has to deal with a huge backlog of procedures that had to be postponed during the pandemic.
Johnson’s bet to lift most restrictions in July seemed to bear fruit when new cases fell instead of growing. But with schools open in England over the past two weeks, this increase in infections could still come. The cases were shot in Scotland, where schools were opened earlier.
Johnson’s bet is that a new vaccine, with minimal restrictions, will be enough to prevent a large increase in hospitalizations.
Johnson, Professor Goodwin, said that avoiding some blockades is crucial for him, adding that some of his own lawmakers would be in their arms even if measures such as the use of masks to combat the spread of virus.
“They really want to see us move forward and learn to live with it,” he said.