As Californians head to the polls to decide if they want to remember Governor Gavin Newsom and, if so, with whom to replace him, preliminary data shows positive for the current incumbent.
Only three out of ten California voters say Newsom’s pandemic control measures are too strict, countering a key argument in the withdrawal against him. And 6 out of 10 results from preliminary polls rate the Republican Party unfavorably, a challenge for those who want to oust the incumbent Democrat.
However, other preliminary results of the poll are less respectable: six out of ten voters consider the cost of living in their area to be “manageable” and the electorate is evenly divided in classifying the ‘state economy positively or negatively, 49-48%.
Usefully for Newsom (if preserved in later data), 54% of voters in the preliminary results say they are in touch with their concerns. Plus, 69% support the state’s student mask mandate. And 63% support Newsom in considering vaccination to be more a public health responsibility than a personal choice.
They call the pandemic the main issue of the state more than choosing any of the other four issues offered in the exit survey. It should be noted that only 24% state that the pandemic is getting worse in the state; a plurality of voters, 39%, say it is improving, and the rest say it will stay the same.
While economic discontent can be a challenge for headlines, it is far from repeating the retirement of Governor Gray Davis in 2003. At the time, a whopping 83% rated the state’s economy negatively; as a result, 71% disapproved of Davis’ performance as governor, paving the way for Arnold Schwarzenegger to take his place.
Another difference, insofar as it remains in later data, may be the most crucial of all: Democrats outperform Republicans in these preliminary results by 17 percentage points, from 43 to 26% (with the rest of independents and others ). as the electorate of the Newsom elections in 2018 as governor, 46-23%, Democrat-Republican, and less as in 2003, practically up to 39-38%.
In another measure of partisan preferences, there are more voters who view the Democratic Party favorably rather than being unfavorable at 52-43%. While it is a disappointing expression of support in itself, it compares to a largely negative view of the Republican Party, 32-63%, favorable-unfavorable.
In part, reflecting these views of parties, 55% of voters in these preliminary data say they would be “worried” or “scared” if Newsom withdrew, splitting evenly between these two options. Less than 40% would be “excited” or “optimistic”.
Approvals
The exit poll calls for Newsom’s job approval rating, a result garnered for publication until the polls end tonight at 8 p.m., Pacific Time. According to available data, a recent pre-election poll by the California Institute of Public Policy found that 53% of likely voters approved of their job in office. While it’s only slightly positive, that’s a far cry from Davis ’approval in the 2003 record, a sad 27%.
For his part, President Joe Biden – who campaigned with Newsom on Monday – has 56% approval on these preliminary results. Biden won the state in 2020 with 63% support, compared to 34% of former President Donald Trump. In the results so far, 55% say they voted for Biden a year ago and 32% for Trump.
By contrast, 34% express a favorable opinion of Newsom’s main challenger, Republican Larry Elder, while 49% view it unfavorably. This makes Elder less of a tie than Schwarzenegger 18 years ago; had a 50-45% favorable-unfavorable rating.
The recalled California election exit poll is being conducted with a mix of telephone interviews with early and absent voters and face-to-face interviews with election day voters in a sample of today’s polling stations . So far, as noted, the results are preliminary and may change as additional data appears overnight.
Covid-19 pandemic
While attitudes related to the pandemic may drive Newsom, so do data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. California is the lowest nationally in weekly COVID-19 cases per capita, tied with the second lowest mortality rate and the only state to have less than a high level of community transmission. Eighty-four percent of the state’s adults have received at least one dose of vaccine, ranking in the top ten states nationwide.
That said, the pandemic is hardly the only problem facing California. Previously, 31% cited it as the most important issue among five offers, compared to homelessness, 22%; the economy, 16%; forest fires, 14%; and crime, 8%.
On an additional issue that is not included in the list of prime numbers, 60% consider climate change to be a very serious problem for the state and 19% consider it a bit serious. Only 17% do not think it is serious.
Election
Eighty percent of voters in these preliminary results voted before election day, mostly by mail instead of leaving them. Majorities of the preliminary results of exit polls report that they vote by mail through partisan lines: 85% of Democrats, 72% of independents, and 62% of Republicans.
If one deduces that the late campaign may not have made much of a difference: eighty-seven percent of voters say they chose more than two weeks ago; in fact, 7 out of 10 say they decided before August.
Latinos
In particular, among groups, Hispanic / Latino voters account for a quarter of participation in these first results. This compares to 31% in the 2020 presidential election, but exceeds this group’s turnout in the electorate in previous intermediate periods in data from 1994 and in the 2003 recovery contest.