Al Qaeda could rebuild itself in Afghanistan and once again become a threat to the American homeland in a year or two.
“The current assessment is probably conservative for one to two years for al-Qaeda to build some capacity to at least threaten its homeland,” said Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lieutenant General Scott D. Berrier, during Tuesday’s Homeland Security Summit.
Officials say members of the terrorist group have already begun returning to the country amid the Taliban acquisition, accelerating the timing on which the group could begin to pose a new threat.
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Although both al-Qaeda and ISIS-K have a presence in Afghanistan, only al-Qaeda has an established alliance with the Taliban. It is still unclear how much effort the Taliban will make to keep the terrorist group under control, although they pledged during the peace deal with the US not to allow the country to become a haven for terrorist groups, a promise that some officials do not trust The Taliban must be maintained now that US forces have left Afghanistan.
CIA Deputy Director David S. Cohen said the agency is looking at “some possible al-Qaeda move to Afghanistan,” but noted that it is difficult for the CIA to assess a timetable for when they or ISIS-K “have the ability to go and attack the homeland” before the agency can detect the threat.
Without a ground presence in the country, officials will try to develop methods of gathering intelligence “on the horizon.”
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“We will also look for ways to work from the horizon, as far as possible,” Cohen said.
Berrier stressed that any intelligence capability on the horizon in Afghanistan will have to be developed along with a new impetus to control rivals such as Russia and China.
“We’re thinking of ways to get back into Afghanistan with all sorts of sources,” Berrier said. “We need to be careful to balance these scarce resources with this pivot to China and Russia.”