The last 50 years in space have been defined by governments, but the future belongs to private companies.
Why it’s important: The space industry is growing, and what was once the competence of nations is increasingly being taken over by companies that want to take advantage of their work in space. This new dynamic will shape the next decades in orbit and beyond.
The last 50 years in space have been defined by governments, but the future belongs to private companies.
Why it’s important: The space industry is growing, and what was once the competence of nations is increasingly being taken over by companies that want to take advantage of their work in space. This new dynamic will shape the next decades in orbit and beyond.
The big picture: Morgan Stanley predicts the space could become a $ 1 trillion industry by 2040, based on the ideas of private companies and the nations that back them.
- Historically, nations have focused on scientific missions and explorations, but private companies like Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos ’Blue Origin have different goals.
- They want to establish a permanent human presence on Mars and bring about a future where millions of people live and work in space.
- To do that, you need to lower the cost of launching infrastructure, such as satellites, telescopes, and other tools, and you have to raise a lot more people.
One of the most consistent things What is happening today that will affect the future of space is a megaconstellation of satellites that broadcast the internet, called Starlink, which was launched by SpaceX. Other companies plan to do the same.
- These groups of small satellites risk messing up certain orbits around the Earth, but they also represent a potentially huge business for companies to achieve their larger goals.
- Companies are also looking at science as a possible way to benefit from space. Rocket Lab, for example, plans to launch its own mission to Venus, while other companies send satellites into space to monitor the Earth’s surface and climate.
Yes, but: Launch costs have come down in recent years, but that is no guarantee that the trend will continue.
- “For years I listen, the cost of the launch will go down; it will go down; it will get smaller and smaller,” Secure World Foundation told Axios Victoria Samson. “It hasn’t arrived yet, maybe.”
- The regulation has also not reached the companies that launch hundreds of satellites into orbit each year, creating concerns about spacecraft and collisions between spacecraft that could be more frequent in the future.
Companies like Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic and SpaceX have just begun launching their first passengers into space.
- While this striking part of the space industry may not generate large amounts of revenue, it could generate more interest for the sector and help it grow.
- In the coming years, these companies will have to prove themselves, Samson says. “Can they take people up there and back safely?”
Between lines: While companies will dominate much of the space landscape in the coming years, nations will increasingly use dominance as an important geopolitical and international relations tool.
- China and the United States point to the Moon, and the United States uses contracts with private companies to get there.
- The space is also becoming more and more militarized and armed.
The summary: Today there are many more players in space and there will be more in the coming decades. Up there is a whole new ball game.