The decision of an International Criminal Court tribunal to pave the way for a possible Israeli investigation into war crimes is forcing the Biden administration to enter the Israeli-Palestinian conflict much earlier than expected.
Why it’s important: The ICC ruling infuriated the Israeli government and also underscored its reliance on the Biden administration, senior Israeli officials tell me. After announcing the decision on Friday, Israel immediately opened urgent consultations with U.S. officials.
- On Monday morning, the U.S. company manager in Jerusalem met with Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi to discuss the issue.
- Hours later, Secretary of State Tony Blinken spoke with Ashkenazi and assured him that the U.S. would help Israel oppose the ICC ruling, Israeli officials tell me.
The big picture: Unlike the Obama and Trump administrations, the Biden administration does not see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a foreign policy priority and has little expectation of progress.
- On Monday on CNN, Blinken summed up President Biden’s initial approach to the issue as “not hurting”, to ensure that neither side takes unilateral measures that further hinder the path to peace.
- Biden does not believe there is a realistic chance of renewing negotiations between the parties soon and therefore has no plans to appoint a special envoy for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
But just three weeks after Biden’s tenure, Israeli officials warn of a deep crisis in Israeli-Palestinian relations if the ICC prosecutor initiates the investigation into war crimes, which was initially requested by the Palestinian government.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu desperately needs Biden’s support on an issue of great importance to Israel.
- The State Department has already challenged the ICC’s decision that it has jurisdiction to investigate the matter.
- Now the Israeli government expects the Biden administration to pressure member states of the court and the prosecutor not to continue the investigation.
What to see: This confidence could leverage the United States when it tries to dissuade the Israeli government from taking provocative measures, such as building new settlements, or it could gain Israeli approval for the reopening of the U.S. consulate in Jerusalem.
- But the ICC ruling could also complicate the Biden administration’s efforts to renew ties with the Palestinians, in particular the plan to reopen the PLO’s Washington office in Washington, which the Trump administration closed in 2018. .
- An existing U.S. law requires the Secretary of State to certify in Congress that the Palestinian Authority is not pursuing actions against Israel in the ICC to allow the PLO to have an office in Washington.
The state of play: Palestinian leaders have welcomed the ICC ruling and called for an investigation as soon as possible. It is unclear whether the Biden administration has held talks with Palestinian officials on the issue.