Oaxaca de Juárez.-The campaigns towards the elections as of June 6, they have not formally started in the whole country and already have 61 actors assassinated politicians, Of which 18 were aspirants to a popularly elected office, according to the Indicator of Political Violence in Mexico prepared by the specialized consultancy Etellekt.
Ivonne Gallecs Carreño, Candidate for the municipal presidency of Ocotlán de Morelos, Oaxaca, murdered last Saturday, is the 18th victim in this electoral process which started in September 2020. it contained in a process under a cluster of risk factors that erupted in an armed aggression, without any protection.
These crimes were committed at a time prior to the final definition of applications, Considered by the consultancy as one of the highest risk, along with the final stretch of the campaigns.
It also reads: PA and PRD condemn murder of candidate in Oaxaca; they demand justice
violence rises
In accordance with Rubén Salazar, Specialist in political and risk analysis and director of the Etellekt consulting, The 2021 election process is already considered the second most violent in history, just below that of 2018, when they killed 48 aspirants i candidates.
Salazar identifies four scenarios towards which he can direct the current electoral process in terms of violence: A desirable, an inertial, a critical and a catastrophic one.
So far the former has been surpassed and there is an 80% probability that the killings of aspirants and candidates will be between 30 and 60.
Also read: Initiate plan to protect integrity of candidates
If the 48 victims of 2018 were exceeded, Mexico would have reached the critical stage.
“Starts increasing violence in two moments: in the period of definitions of candidacies and already when they start the campaigns.
“A pattern of violence is repeated in pre-campaigns or inter-campaigns, when the candidates still do not have registration with the electoral bodies,” clarifies Salazar.
Also reads: Ivonne Gallegos, former member of the PA and aspiring mayor of Ocotlán, was assassinated in Oaxaca
The above, explains the expert, happens because it is when applicants are most vulnerable, as by law it is only given protection of candidates with registration not to pre-candidates.
“The authority ‘s response is more lax when they kill an aspirant than if they are already registered candidates before the electoral bodies.
“The cases remain in oblivion and impunity, and rarely occurs with the intellectual author,” he adds and gives as an example that, of the 18 aspirants who have been murdered in this process, only arrests for a case.
Also reads: Gladys Merlin, former PRI deputy and her daughter in Veracruz murdered
higher risk
Of the murdered aspirants, 14 contained for a municipal presidency and 66% did so from the opposition. In addition, 15 were from states in the southeast of the country.
According to a count prepared by THE UNIVERSALOf the 18 aspirants killed, seven are from Veracruz; 4 of Guerrero; 2 of Quintana Roo. Guanajuato, Chihuahua, Chiapas and Jalisco have one, respectively. They were joined by the victim of Oaxaca. Of these, 15 were men and three women.
For the specialist, other risk factors that can be listed in the murders of those looking for a place of choice are the presence of drug trafficking, high social and political conflict, marginalization and offers of the aspirants themselves to fight the organized crime o la corruption.
It also reads: PA calls for protection of candidates against violence in the country
He claims that the protection model presented by the federal government is part of a misdiagnosis that is based only on the number of people executed, without taking into account risk factors such as threats and intimidation, making it “impossible to provide precautionary protection measures if you don’t know who is at risk. ”
The aim, he explains, should be to identify candidates at risk and approach them to take action early and not just when there is already an imminent risk of losing their lives.
He also stresses that the government plan is part of a criminalization of the victims, as it lightly ensures that in most cases the crime is organized, without taking into account the political motives and the background of the victims. This, he says, is a return to the narrative of the governments of Felipe Calderón i Enrique Peña Nieto.
Also read: PRI candidate for mayor of Nou Cases Grans, Chihuahua assassinated
“It’s not just murder, it’s instilling psychological terror in the candidate or aspirant, forcing them to give up or threatening to use more extreme methods of violence, but cases like threats to identify mobiles and enforce sanctions are not investigated. corresponding to prevent political violence from becoming an instrument of electoral competition that defines the results in a contest, ”the expert asserts.