“These floods have shown us that even developed countries are not safe from the severe impacts of the extreme climate we have seen and we know are getting worse with climate change,” said Friederike Otto, associate director of the Institute for Change. Oxford University Environmentalist said in a statement. “This is an urgent global challenge and we need to achieve it. The science is clear and it has been for years.”
The frequency of one in 400 years only refers to the particular region studied and does not mean that 400 more years will pass until other parts of Europe or the world see a similar meteorological event, explained Maarten van Aalst, professor of climate and disaster resistance at the University of Twente in the Netherlands.
“In this case, [the projection for next year is] possibly worse because, year after year, if the trend so far is that the climate increases, the risk will continue to grow. So, if anything, hopefully this will be more likely to happen next year than this year. But it’s basically an opportunity of more than 400 every year, ”van Aalst said at a news conference.
Scientists focused on the areas around the Ahr and Erft rivers in Germany and the Meuse in Belgium, where record rainfall was broken. But they also took into account what was happening in a larger region, including parts of France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Switzerland, to establish how the extreme weather event had been influenced by rising global temperatures.
Scientists examined meteorological records and used computer simulations to compare the current image – in a world 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than in pre-industrial times – with that of the late 1800s.
They warned that the hotter the Earth, the more frequent and intense these rain events will be. Specifically, if global temperatures rose to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the intensity of rain in a single day would increase by 0.8 to 6% more and would be between 1.2 and 1.4 times more likely to occur, according to their models.
River measuring stations destroyed
Van Aalst said the findings should be an “alarm call” for governments and local leaders to improve their preparedness for extreme weather events, including how to build houses for children, the elderly and the elderly. and people with disabilities can achieve safety at events such as floods or fires.
“I hope it’s an alarm call also for people who have not only been affected by it, but also for other people, because there have been heat waves elsewhere, where I could tell a similar story,” he said. to say. “We’re just dealing with more extreme events of many kinds, and all we can do is turn off the tap to increase the greenhouse gases to avoid the risk of getting out of hand, and on the other hand, preparing for this more extreme climate. ”
The scientists acknowledged that their estimate – 1.2 to 9 times more likely, due to climate change – was a wide range and explained that the models they used and the data they had available for these events localized them prevented them from further restricting their results. .
Crucial data was also missing, as some measuring stations were destroyed by the floods.
The study acknowledged that several conditions had worsened the severity of the floods, including that the region’s soil was already saturated and that the terrain in some locations, with narrow valleys and sloping mountains, caused “funnel-like effects” in case of extreme flooding. ”These factors were taken into account in their models.
This summer, the northern hemisphere has experienced a wide range of extreme weather events beyond deadly floods, including record temperatures that in some cases have caused wildfires in the US, Canada, Siberia, Algeria and the south. ‘Europe.
The U.S. state of Tennessee is now experiencing heavy rains and deadly flooding, as the Nashville National Meteorological Service reported more than 17 inches of rain in the city of McEwen, possibly setting a new state record for rainfall during the 24 hours. If checked, it would destroy the previous state record set in September 1982 with 13.6 inches of rain in the city of Milan.