A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences projects that Covid-19 will reduce U.S. life expectancy by 2020 by 1.13 years, with a disproportionate number of deaths among black and Latino populations. Combined with provisional estimates of U.S. mortality rates during the first half of the year, the data show a clear increase in the mortality rate as the pandemic gripped the nation.
“Estimated reductions for black and Latino populations are three to four times higher than for whites. Consequently, Covid-19 is expected to reverse over ten years the progress made in closing the black gap. -white in life expectancy and reduce Latin mortality advantage by more than 70% “, according to study researchers Theresa Andrasfay of the University of Southern California and Noreen Goldman of the Research Office of the Population of Princeton University.
“Black and Latino Americans have experienced an exorbitant burden of morbidity and mortality from Covid-19, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase the risk of exposure to Covid-19 and the risk of mortality for infected people,” he added. the study.
Prior to the pandemic, the United States had steadily advanced in terms of life expectancy, although it had slowed in recent years.
But the pandemic has pushed back all that progress, and it has also widened the gap between the life expectancy of the black-and-white.
“It is estimated that black and Latino populations will experience decreases in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 years, respectively, both times the reduction of 0.68 years for whites. These projections imply an increase. of almost 40% in black −The gap in white life expectancy, from 3.6 years to more than 5 years, thus eliminating the progress made in reducing this differential since 2006 “, added the ‘study.
CDC: The U.S. mortality rate rose significantly in the second quarter
New data from the National Center for Health Statistics suggests that Covid-19 caused a significant jump in mortality in the U.S.
The age-adjusted all-cause mortality rate was 769 per 100,000 in the first quarter of 2020 and increased to 840 in the second quarter of the year. Comparatively, the mortality rate in the second quarter of 2019 was 702 per 100,000, the NCHS said.
Although the report shows that mortality increased significantly in 2020, it provides an incomplete snapshot of the pandemic, as currently only data are available for the first two quarters.
Last week, CDC statistics said Covid-19 was likely the third leading cause of death in 2020. It estimated that there were between 316,252 and 431,792 deaths in excess by 2020.
Heart disease is the leading cause of death and cancer is the second leading cause of death in the United States.
These estimates are based on all death records received and processed by NCHS as of November 27, 2020.
A multi-year effect
The Andrasfay and Goldman study used data from the Census Bureau and data on actual and projected pandemic deaths from the Institute of Metrics and Health Assessment at the University of Washington and the National Center for Health Statistics. They also used various models and estimates of mortality rates.
“Our average estimate indicates a reduction in life expectancy in the United States at birth from 1.13 years to 77.48 years, lower than any year since 2003,” they said.
“This impact is about ten times greater than the worrying annual decline of several years ago, attributed mainly to drug overdose, other external causes, and respiratory and cardiovascular disease,” the study added.
The United States is already behind other rich countries in terms of life expectancy and the pandemic will get worse.
“The U.S. reduction in life expectancy by 2020 is expected to exceed that of most other high-income countries, indicating that the United States, which already had a lower life expectancy than the rest of the world. High-income developed countries before the pandemic will see their life expectancy fall even further behind their peers, ”the study said.
The effects of the pandemic are expected to last well beyond 2020.
“Any reduction in life expectancy may persist beyond 2020 due to continued mortality from Covid-19 and the long-term impacts of the pandemic on health, social and economic,” the study added.
Maggie Fox and Jessica Firger contributed to this report.