Although variant B.1.1.7 first identified in the United Kingdom currently has a relatively low frequency in the United States, the newspaper says it doubles every week and a half, similar to what was observed in other countries. The report estimates that this variant is 35-45% more transmissible than strains that previously appeared in the United States and doubles approximately every 10 days in the country.
Last month, models from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted that variant B.1.1.7 could become the predominant strain in the United States in March. It is estimated that the virus is 50% more transmissible.
“Our study shows that the US has a similar trajectory to that of other countries where B.1.1.7 quickly became the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, ”the researchers wrote in the study’s prepress, which has not yet been reviewed or published.
In addition to case groups in California, Florida, and Georgia, many B.1.1.7 cases in the United States did not report recent international travel, according to the report, suggesting that “significant community transmission of variant B. 1.1.7 is already underway in the United States “
U.S. labs are still sequencing only a small subset of coronavirus samples, according to the newspaper, so it is unclear which variants are circulating in the country. Without “decisive and immediate public health action,” the new, more transmissible variants are likely to have devastating consequences for COVID-19 mortality and morbidity in the U.S. in a few months, “the researchers warn.
The president of the Helix, Dr. James Lu told CNN last week that the company had followed up on evidence that B.1.1.7 cases were on the rise and not just a product of an increase in genetic sequencing across the country.
“The growth rate here in Florida and Southern California is very similar to the type of growth we’ve seen previously in the UK and Denmark … where B.1.1.7 became the predominant variant of the variety quite quickly, “Lu said.
It is unclear whether the pace of vaccination in the United States will prevent the strain from staying in places where it is not yet circulating, he added.
“We’re in a race between the vaccine and the new strains,” Lu said.
Last week, Dr. Anthony Fauci suggested that the U.S. does not vaccinate people fast enough to stay ahead of new variants. This could reduce vaccine efforts to overthrow the cases, he told CNN. “If variants and mutations arrive and start to be dominant, this will obviate some of the effects of the vaccine,” he said.
According to CDC, more than 610 cases of variant B.1.1.7 have been found in 33 states. Most are found in Florida and California. The first American case was announced on December 29, but the first known cases go back earlier. Analysis of the new study suggests that variant B.1.1.7 arrived in the United States in late November 2020.
The strain has also been found in at least 80 countries and territories around the world, the World Health Organization said last week.
The United States has also accounted for five cases in two states of variant B.1.351 first identified in South Africa and two cases in one state of variant P.1 first identified in Brazil.
CNN’s Michael Nedelman and Andrea Diaz contributed to this report.