New restrictions on international border crossings, combined with hesitant vaccination efforts against COVID-19, have dashed hopes of a significant rise in air travel in 2021.
Why it’s important: For global aviation, which suffered its worst year in history in 2020, misery is likely to continue, slowing a broader economic recovery.
- Forecasts that air travel would recover to 50% of pre-pandemic levels by 2021 now appear to be an extensive stretch, industry officials warn.
- “There’s a recovery, but it’s a much smaller recovery,” Brian Pearce, chief economist at the International Air Transport Association, told reporters this week.
- “What we’ve seen in recent weeks is that governments are taking a much tougher, wiser approach.”
- Its worst case scenario: air travel in 2021 is only 38% of 2019 levels.
The general picture: Today the world is more closed than at any time in the last twelve months.
- New potentially more contagious coronavirus strains have triggered renewed limits on cross-border travel and a dizzying range of quarantine restrictions.
- While the arrival of new vaccines is good news for air travel, slow deployment means the herd’s immunity is still a long way off.
A bad sign: Bookings for future travel declined significantly in January, IATA reported.
- “Things will be a lot harder before they get better,” warns aviation consultant Shashank Nigam, CEO of Simpliflying.
- Even countries that vaccinate quickly will keep their borders closed for some time, he predicts.
- Israel, for example, leads the world with 20% of the population fully vaccinated, but last week imposed a ban on international travel to combat rising cases from a rapidly expanding UK variant .
- And regional travel bubbles like the ones between Hong Kong and Singapore or Australia and New Zealand didn’t last.
Context: The rebound that began last summer stalled in the fourth quarter as coronavirus cases increased worldwide.
- Air travel fell 70% in October, November and December, compared to previous year’s levels.
- For the whole of 2020, passenger demand fell by 66%. International passenger demand fell 75%; domestic demand almost halved.
- Flying Americans were looking for beach and sun – trips to places like Mexico and the U.S. Virgin Islands fell less in December, according to Airlines for America.
- A bright spot: air cargo only dropped 10% last year, which helped keep many airlines afloat.
What they say: “Last year was a catastrophe. There is no other way to describe it,” IATA Director-General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac said in a statement.
- “I don’t think anyone expects a COVID-19-free world any time soon. Certainly not in the coming months or even during this year. But our ability to manage risk increases as we get vaccinated and test capacity increases. . ”
Airlines say widespread testing does not restrict border, will allow international air travel to resume safely.
- Nigam’s company is implementing a service called Fit2Fly.travel that brings together airlines and testing labs so passengers can schedule a COVID-19 test as part of the booking process.
- New smartphone apps like IATA’s CommonPass and Travel Pass could help validate the health status of passengers so governments can reopen borders safely.
Yes, but: When it comes to domestic flights, U.S. airlines are urging the Biden administration not to require pre-departure tests, saying it would limit access to travel for rural and low-income communities.
What to see: For airlines, the outlook for the next year or two is uncertain and will depend on the effectiveness of vaccines and testing that can prevent the spread of new variants.
The summary: Aviation is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023 or 2024.