All the focus is on the top five quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL draft.
Trever Lawrence and Zach Wilson appear to be safe decisions in the top two picks with Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trey Lance likely to follow. The New England Patriots re-signed Cam Newton with a one-year deal, but will likely add depth to the position during some time in the draft.
It is unknown if he is in the first round or later. But, it seems like the only way to get one of the top five guys is by negotiating. Former Patriots executive Michael Lombardi gave a detailed report on why the team would not change, but the preceding logic also did not make Bill Belichick spend the most money on a free agency.
Fox Sports ’most recent draft, Peter Schrager, causes the San Francisco 49ers to select Jones at No. 3 and the Patriots switch to No. 4 to catch Fields. The question is: what would it cost for patriots to make this move?
Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated gave his best guess.
The Falcons’ pick, in Jimmy Johnson’s old draft stock chart, is worth 1,800 points. The Patriots are in 15th place, and that’s 1,050 points. In general, you will value a future for the first time with a little less than halfway round selection. A selection from the middle of the first round equates to 975 points, which would exceed 1,800. The point is, if you think the Patriots will be good next year — and we have two decades of evidence to show that Bill Belichick is capable of making that happen — you won’t value the selection that way.
Therefore, we assume that he would value the choice of the first round of the Patriots 2022 as the 28th selection. That’s worth 660 points, and 1,050 plus 660 are 1,710. To that, add the Patriots’ two fourth-round picks, who are worth 54 and 50 points, and you’re there.
The Patriots get: fourth selection.
The Falcons get: 15th selection, 120th selection, 122nd selection, 2022 first selection.
In the past, this doesn’t seem like a price Belichick would be willing to pay. After this insane spending season, anything seems possible.