Two events this week should put an end to the chaos it has consumed in the US. UU. After the presidential and legislative elections on November 3.
The first is this Tuesday, when the state of Georgia goes to the polls to define the names of the two senators still missing to complete the upper house. and congressional control depends on the outcome.
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The second is the next day, during a joint session of the legislature in which the vote of the Electoral College on December 14 must be corroborated, which already ruled the clear victory of the Democrat. Joe Biden in these same elections.
Under normal circumstances, both moments would amount to an almost protocolic exercise of the American electoral system. But in the current ones, where the polarization is more than extreme, they are seen as a test of fire for democracy in this country. In Georgia, the stakes could not be higher.
With the White House and the House of Representatives already defined in favor of Democrats, Republicans have raised these elections as a matter of life and death. If they lose both seats, their rivals will get 50 seats in the Senate and that would give them the majority as the deciding vote when a tie is presented is put by the country’s vice president. In this case Kamala Harris.
In practice, this would give them the power to implement Biden’s unopposed agenda from the first day of his administration. In other words, approve without delay their nominees, approve a new package of assistance to tackle the coronavirus, and block any investigation that Republicans want to launch to entangle their government.
But if they win the opposite would happen.
The candidates for the curules are the current Republican senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue to Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff.
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If the Democrats win in Georgia they would ensure control of the Senate and the House of Representatives.
In the November election none of the candidates reached 50 percent of the vote, which Georgia laws require to avoid a second round.
In theory, Republicans have a chance to win, as Georgia is a southern state that tends to lean on candidates from that party.
But if one thing became clear in the presidential election is that the distance between political factions in the US. UU. It is no longer what it was before. At least in this state.
In fact it was Biden who won the state, albeit by only about 10,000 votes.
Polls (not very reliable these days) speak of a virtual tie in both races and experts believe the two seats will be defined by a handful of votes.
But in the current environment, where Trump has been tasked with sowing discord by alleging an alleged fraud he was never able to prove (and which both the courts and election authorities rejected for lack of evidence), a similar outcome it could be explosive. Regardless of the outcome.
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If the Republicans lose again, they are more likely to resume the path of demands and protests, pushed by a base that ended up distrusting the electoral process even though it is members of this same party who hold the positions of power in the state and certified Biden’s triumph.
If the defeated are the Democrats, the effect would be the opposite. Among other things because Trump, despite losing the election in Georgia, tried to pressure the political authorities to annul legitimate votes and give the victory to the brave.
It goes without saying, in fact, that if the election is tight there will be new petitions for counts and lawsuits before the courts that could leave Limbo in control of Congress for several more weeks.
In the middle of this exchange will take place the joint session of the legislature, which is scheduled for this Wednesday.
According to a law from the end of the last century (1887), the new Congress must meet on January 6 (probably still without the results of Georgia being known) to count the votes of the Electoral College, where Biden prevailed with 306 votes against Trump’s 232.
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In principle, the role of Congress is only in form. That is, he must authenticate that the votes of the Electoral College he received are the same as those sent by the state. This is because at that time there was a fear that the votes might be adulterated on their way to Congress.
But the law of 1887 also contemplates a provision which has almost never been used but which today is the cause of intense controversy.
Under this provision, any congressman may object to the result of the Electoral College vote in any state if he considers that there were irregularities.
Donald Trump delivers an intense pulse within his own Republican party.
For this to happen it is necessary for a Senator and a Representative in the House to agree with this objection. Given this scenario, the joint session is dissolved and two chambers meet separately to consider the complaint for a maximum period of two hours and then put it to a vote.
Because the advance complaint needs to be approved by both chambers. But from then on the process becomes confusing.
In theory, the votes in the Electoral College of this state would remain in the air and would be deducted from the candidate who won them.
And if that prevents the winner of the election from adding up the votes needed to get a majority in the Electoral College, then Congress would be in charge of electing a president.
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But not before the courts intervene because this is a scenario that has never been presented and before which there are still many constitutional doubts.
This, in any case, is Trump’s desperate bid to hold on to power even though his defeat was forceful and corroborated by both the electoral authorities and the courts.
But their efforts have zero chance of prospering. That’s because Democrats control the House of Representatives and will defeat any dispute that arises (both houses are required to match).
In fact, the question that many are asking is how many Republicans – especially in the Senate – will join the complaint because many, including President Mitch McConnell, have already acknowledged Biden’s victory.
McConnell, moreover, advised members of his party not to support an initiative that is seen more as a test of loyalty to Trump that will leave them divided. It is very likely, even, that Republicans will not even add the necessary votes to approve such a complaint in the Senate, where they are in the majority.
But as Edward Foley, a history professor at Yale University, says, this is a very dangerous exercise for American democracy.
“Trump and his supporters want to turn this session into a circus to ‘relit’ their allegations of fraud. But this is not a role the constitution gave Congress and a precedent is being set that could demolish our system. electoral “ daus Foley.
Under this assumption, the analyst claims, a party that controls both chambers could ignore the popular vote and “put” the president to his liking by attributing powers that do not belong to him.
The New York Post itself, a conservative medium that has always been characterized by its “trumpism,” published this week an editorial with a huge front-page headline in which it asks the president to “stop this madness.”
Mr President, the newspaper says, “What One is Promoting (for this January 6) is an anti-democratic coup”
.
Even worse, Trump has been promoting a mass march for that same day in Washington and has sold the idea to his followers that they could “Prevent” than Congress “Authenticate” Biden’s victory.
Something that could trigger violence in the city and give the president the pretext to invoke the “martial law” of which some of his most radical supporters speak so much and which they see as the only viable way to steal the election.
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No one believes that something like this is going to happen. Most likely, Congress will meet as planned and after a long session – which can last until the next day – will end up confirming what everyone already knows, including Republicans themselves: that Biden won the election two years ago months and will take office this January 20 as the new president of EE. UU.
But the mere fact that the idea is circulating speaks volumes about the delicate moment that is being lived in this country.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TEMPS correspondent
Washington
On twitter @ sergom68