Another weekend is coming up. And there is another snowstorm in the forecast. Another nor’easter. I guess it’s the season.
This coastal storm is different from the long-lasting, impactful winter storm that engulfed the state earlier this week. (A “Miller Type A” against the previous “Miller Type B” track.) While we’ve been watching the evolution of this weekend’s storm since Monday, it wasn’t until Thursday afternoon and Friday at morning that it became clear this coast The hugger protection system would bring a winter climate to New Jersey.
Therefore, at this time we have determined that the storm will have some impact. (It’s a “success.”) And from this post, we already have a good idea of the moment. All that remains is to nail accumulations and impacts.
I had a stab in the total snowfall. But this is the kind of storm in which accurate track will have a big impact on totals. A “move” of 25 to 50 miles will make all the difference between being buried and busted here.
Needless to say, they are not my favorite storms to predict. But let’s give it a try …
Chronology
This is the direct part. (I will never call snow forecasting “easy”.) Our initial rain band will arrive Sunday early in the morning, extending from south to north between 2 a.m. and 6 a.m. (the type of initial precipitation may be rain or mix, but this will change rapidly until it becomes almost all snowy). Sunday morning hours, between 8 a.m. and noon. The final flakes will be reduced Sunday afternoon, between 13.00 and 16.00 approximately
I want to comment on something I’ve seen on social media. Some double that storm after a certain one Great football game this also happens on Sunday. There is a certain appeal to using the name of this event, “snow” and “Sunday,” given the alliteration. Despite this:
1.) The football league of this nation bears the trademark of that name and aggressively litigates against illegal and inappropriate use. While news organizations and non-commercial mentions are generally safe, using this nickname to specifically mark and promote your coverage is a gray area.
2.) The snow will end several hours before the start. Especially heavy things. So I feel it’s a bit misleading to connect the sporting event with the weather event, when they don’t happen at the same time. (In New Jersey, at least.)
Most likely scenario
For my first stab snow map, I opted for wide areas of overlapping snow totals, aiming for what I consider reasonable, average estimates of total snowfall. The snow bullseye seems to probably land in the interior of southern Jersey, with more than 8 “snow accumulation. We haven’t had one in a long time South Jersey Special!
There are some models who paint up to a foot of snowfall over NJ. That is, the NAM, which may be scarce to identify and predict intense snowflakes. I’m not ready to go. However.
In the same way, I think zero here there is snowfall in northern New Jersey.
Another consideration here is the type of precipitation. The temperature profile of the atmosphere seems to point to a snowy event (rather than rainy or snowy). But there are two exceptions:
1.) Temperatures may not be cold enough early Sunday morning for all the snow. You may find rain or winter mix for a couple of hours, before throwing yourself into all the snow. I don’t think this has a significant impact on snow totals.
2.) The coast will be under the influence of an ocean breeze (relatively warmer) during part of the storm. This can keep the few miles along the coast warm enough for rain and mix, rather than snow. This could result in significantly low snow accumulation along and east of Garden State Parkway.
If the storm shakes
For technological and logistical reasons, I had never tried it. But look what happens if I manually “move” the snow forecast over about 50 miles in either direction.
It is true that the drawing is a little rough. And the numbers are even rougher, just estimates. But hopefully this will give you an idea of how our snow forecast may change going forward, as the storm track moves closer to (northwest) or away from (southeast) New Jersey.
Winter storm clock
As we are likely to have substantial snowfall in 48 hours, the National Weather Service issued a Winter storm clock for most of the state:
—Sunday at midnight at 4pm … Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Salem, Somerset
—Sunday at 4 a.m. to 6 p.m. … east of Bergen, Essex, Hudson, east of Passaic and the Union
For the record, I think it was smart and necessary for NWS to issue such a blanket clock at this stage of the game, given the uncertainty of the storm track and possible buildups. I don’t agree 100% with the geography or the time they are forecasting here. But I hope that when notices and notices are posted on Saturday, they will be much more specific and specific.
Other impacts
There may be a short period of wind gusts of over 30 mph. It’s not terrible.
But as this storm passes quickly, it is not expected to push much water from the ocean toward the Jersey shore. Storm wave estimates encourage me to less than a foot. Tide indications suggest a round of strong waves and small coastal flooding behind the storm Monday morning, but that’s it.
It will become cold and windy behind the storm, while Arctic air returns to Garden State. It’s not entirely a “dangerous” cold, but certainly placid and unseasonal. Low temperatures Monday morning are likely to drop for teens, with the possibility of chills in the single digits.
Some reminders
I consider anything over 6 inches to be an “important” snow event. Travel will be difficult and dangerous, traffic will be heavy and plows will have to get off the road. So here’s where we’ll target the forecast forecast: who’s most likely to see “significant” snow and who ends up in the “minor” or “moderate” category.
It is also important to remember how much snow is still left on the ground in northern Jersey. The last three days we have had a good snow melt. But there is not much room for the plows to put more snow. If the northeast of Sunday swings north toward the snowiest solution, only more severe and prolonged impacts can occur.
Finally, please, this is an exceptionally difficult and sensitive forecast. Due to the nor’easter nature of this “Miller Type A” and the sudden change of track, the “rocking factor” is more important here than ever. This forecast will change and evolve from here to the beginning of the storm. New data, new information and new analysis will always lead to a new perspective. This is how weather forecasting works.
What’s next?
We will use both the Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon forecast model to zero to the precise storm track, moisture content, and temperature profile. I will probably post a new weather blog around noon on Saturday, with a more refined and safer snow forecast.
Until then, enjoy Friday night and have a fantastic weekend.
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist at Townsquare Media, New Jersey. Follow him Facebook o Twitter to get the latest weather forecasts and updates in real time.