Pexels
A new study reveals the amount of ice that could be lost around Antarctica if the international community fails to urgently curb global warming emissions, reinforcing arguments for bolder climate policies.
The study, published Thursday in the journal Geophysical research letters, found that more than a third of the surface of all Antarctic ice shelves (including 67% of the surface of the Antarctic Peninsula) could be at risk of collapsing if global temperatures soar to 4 ° C above pre-industrial levels.
An ice shelf, as NASA explains, “is a thick, floating ice slab that forms where a glacier or ice flows along the shore.” They are found only in Antarctica, Greenland, Canada and the Russian Arctic and play a key role in limiting sea level rise.
“Ice platforms are important buffers that prevent the earth’s glaciers from flowing freely into the ocean and contributing to rising sea levels,” explained Ella Gilbert, the study’s lead author, in a statement. “When they sink, it’s like removing a giant cork from a bottle, allowing unimaginable amounts of water to be dumped into the sea from glaciers.”
“We know that when melted ice builds up on the surface of ice shelves, it can fracture and collapse dramatically,” added Gilbert, a University of Reading researcher. “Previous research has provided us with an overview in terms of predicting the decline of the Antarctic ice shelf, but our new study uses the latest modeling techniques to complete the more detailed details and provide more accurate projections.”
Gilbert and co-author Christoph Kittel of the University of Liege in Belgium conclude that limiting the rise in global temperature to 2 ° C instead of 4 ° C would halve the area.
“At 1.5 ° C, only 14% of the surface of the Antarctic ice shelf would be in danger,” Gilbert told The conversation.
Although the 2015 Paris climate agreement aims to keep the temperature rise “well below” 2 ° C, with a more ambitious target of 1.5 ° C, current climate reduction plans emissions are offline with both targets, according to a United Nations analysis.
Gilbert said Thursday that the findings of his new study “highlight the importance of limiting global temperature increases as set out in the Paris agreement if we want to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, including rising from sea level “.
“If temperatures continue to rise at current rates,” he said, “we may lose more Antarctic ice shelves in the coming decades.”
Researchers warn that Larsen C, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, as well as the Shackleton, Pine Island and Wilkins ice shelves are at risk of warming to less than 4 ° C due to its geography and runoff predictions.
“Limiting warming will not only be good for Antarctica: preserving ice shelves means a global sea level rise, and that’s good for everyone,” Gilbert added.
Gilbert said low-lying coastal areas, such as the small island nations of Vanuatu and Tuvalu in the South Pacific Ocean, are at greatest risk. CNN.
“However, coastal areas around the world would be vulnerable,” he warned, “and countries with fewer resources available to mitigate and adapt to rising sea levels will see worse consequences.”
Research published in February examining the projections of the Fifth evaluation report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as of the agency Special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate found that sea level rise forecasts for this century “are very economical when tested against satellite and tidal observations.”
A co-author of this study, John Church, of the Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales, said at the time that “if we continue with large ongoing emissions as we currently stand, we will commit the world to measure sea level over the coming centuries “.
Parties to the Paris agreement are updating their emission reduction commitments – called nationally determined contributions – ahead of the United Nations climate summit, known as COP26.
This article has been republished from EcoWatch through Common Dreams.
COLLABORATOR
