Barcelona has a new president, Joan Laporta, who happens to be its former president, and speculation abounds about what could happen next.
Scenarios range from total fatality – more than a billion dollars in debt, the overdue contract of Lionel Messi, a global pandemic that is devastating the football economy – to positions of “What? Worry me? ” , perfectly exemplified by the presidential candidate Toni Freixa, who had spoken of signing Erling Haaland, of Borussia Dortmund, and Kylian Mbappé, of PSG.
As is often the case, reality is somewhere in between. There are reasons to fear the worst, reasons to be cautiously optimistic, and some reasons to rejoice, even a few days after not qualifying for the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the first time since 2007.
A cunning and responsible management of Laporta could keep Barcelona at the highest, or at least close to the top, of club football during the coming campaigns. But it could also keep getting its foot in the door and sinking to unrecognizable depths. But this is the good news.
1. There are two extraordinary teams in Europe, and the rest … well …
Manchester City are one step above all others, and you can probably say the same for Bayern Munich. They’re solid teams from a financial standpoint, and while they’ll have to make some adjustments in the summer (the former needs a center forward and the latter, a center-back) they’re well placed. Everyone else has issues to resolve on the court, on the bench, or on club accounts. Barça may be worse than the big clubs in Europe in many ways, but they all have problems.
2. Your debt is monstrous, but debt is only a problem if you can’t pay it
The “short-term” debt of nearly $ 800 million is pretty scary. Financial blogger Swiss Ramble explains in detail how Barcelona is so big compared to other clubs, and why it is worrying. However, as long as it can be refinanced, there is room for maneuver, and the fact is that at the moment there is a lot of private capital going around in football and interest rates are still low.
They may not get a great deal and to some extent they could end up kicking the problem out later, but they will get a deal.
3. They apply the rules of “More than a club”, which is a double-edged sword, but in this case it is a net positive
The structure of Barcelona – with a council elected by its members – means that making a loan is more like lending money to a local government. At first glance, it’s not a good thing: elected executives aren’t equally committed because, unlike private investors, they’re not playing with their money. They may be more likely to give in to external pressures and take unreasonable risks in the name of short-term popularity, so lenders charge them more.
This is so to some extent, though not as much as in the past. On the other hand, the public status of Barcelona gives it a little more leverage with lenders. One thing is that a bank threatens to take legal action against a club of an American investment fund or a Russian oligarch if they delay payments. And a very different one is to go against a public fund like Barcelona, with tens of millions of followers and a new direction that has inherited the disaster.
In terms of public relations, if Barça need money, the lender is more likely to want to renegotiate and have a good image in the press – “See? ‘We’re helping Barça out of the hole and we’re not bad!” – instead of calling lawyers and gatherers.
4. There is a backbone of top-notch talent, mostly young people
We set Messi aside for a moment and look at the rest. Marc-Andre ter Stegen (28), Frenkie de Jong (23), Pedri (18) and Ansu Fati (18) are without a doubt top players, they are among the best in the world in their roles. Ronald Araujo (22), Sergino Dest (20) and Ilaix Moriba (18) are on track to reach this level.
If you really want to see the world through Barça glass, you could include Riqui Puig (21), Óscar Mingueza (21) and Francisco Trincao (21) in this list, and maybe add to the Carles Alena (23) and Jean loans -Clair Todibo (21). I’m not going to go that far, but among the last six there will surely be one that will reach the top level, and a couple of helpful collaborators. Considering his ages, it’s not bad at all.
5. Despite the ups and downs, some players have shown that they do not need to be replaced immediately
Jordi Alba is 31 years old, but he has had his best campaign in several years and could offer a couple more seasons (anyway, he is hired until 2024 inclusive). Clement Lenglet (25) is also hired until 2026, and while he doesn’t convince everyone, he’s a useful player. Even Sergio Busquets (32), who had a bad streak this year, can give you one or two more years under certain conditions.
6. Everyone is going bad financially, it’s not just your case … which means the football ecosystem has changed
Transfer expenses and salaries will almost certainly go down in the summer as there is less money in the system. This hurts you because it is harder to get rid of assets to get cash quickly. Barça have had the highest payroll in the world for a number of years, and the others simply will not want to take on some Camp Nou fiascos with excessive salaries. But the lack of cash in the system works in two ways. It also means that there will be less competition for the guys you want to keep, particularly those to whom you want to extend the contract, like Pedri or like Ousmane Dembélé. And if you need to make new signings, they should, by the same token, be much cheaper.
7. Bad contracts are not eternal and in some cases can be negotiated
Maybe that won’t work with players like Samuel Umtiti or Philippe Coutinho – you’ll be committed to their contracts until 2023. The same goes for Miralem Pjanic (30) until 2024. That’s fine. They will magically disappear from your payroll in a few years. (And that’s important when you make projections and arms your three-year plan). But you can approach someone like Gerard Piqué – who is 34 years old and has a contract until 2024, and who also loves the club – and say, “Gerard, we need your help … we are having difficulties. We can fix it. something? He’s extremely rich to begin with, he’s married to someone who has more money than him and is likely to have ambitions to get a role after his retirement … why not try at least?
And then there is Sergi Roberto, who at the end of the season will end his contract. This is the only club he knows, he has been injured throughout the campaign, would you say no to a few more years and a little less money?
8. Barça’s economic model means that they have absorbed more of the negative effects of VOCID-19, but they should enjoy the positive ones more when all this is over.
The Camp Nou is the largest stadium in European football and its closure meant that the audience went from an average of 75,000 people per game, before the pandemic, to zero since then. The Barcelona Museum is the third most visited in Spain – its revenue fell to zero.
You don’t have to be a genius to see how, in absolute terms, the closures have affected Barça to a much greater degree than other clubs. But when everything reopens, revenue will re-enter through the big door. And this will also have a positive impact on Barça more than on the others.
9. Ronald Koeman’s contract is valid until 2022
He has made mistakes and may not be the long-term solution, worse the Dutchman and also a former Barcelona player has exceeded expectations in terms of how he was able to redirect the ship and in terms of its acceptance between the players. The fact that Barcelona is still in the race for the domestic double despite Messi’s bureaufax, the resignation of José María Bartomeu, the disaster in the summer pass market, the financial implosion … at some point, everything that means you deserve credit.
The best thing, however, is that if Barça need to go in the opposite direction, it will not be difficult for them to let go. And if he stays, he won’t be in a position to be too demanding as a high-profile coach would be.
10. If you are smart, you can make the situation regarding Messi end up being beneficial for everyone
Simply put, you need to put a number of what Messi brings to the club. A real number, not Laporta’s electoral voodoo of profitability when he said that Messi costs Barcelona 8% of his budget but that it means 30% of his income. And then you talk to him as an adult. You tell him you want him to stay, but if he hopes to win something close to the more than $ 100m he earns now, that won’t happen, because it would be irresponsible on the part of the club. It would mean that they will not pay their debts and will not be able to surround themselves with players with whom they can continue to win before retiring.
You shouldn’t be ashamed to ask for a “resident discount”. He doesn’t pretend to be a person who feels mostly motivated by money, anyway. Nor does it mean he has to be like Pau Gasol and play for (virtually) nothing. You just need to show him that if he accepts a substantial cut, with that money you will be paying off debt or adding / retaining talent. Calculate a number and stay firm with it … and pray that you agree.
What if you disagree? Well, you’ll have a hefty amount of money available on your payroll and you’ll relieve a ton of financial pressure.
What if she agrees? Well, you’ll have another season with one of the greatest footballers in history at a price that’s probably much lower than it’s worth.
Here are 10 reasons to feel optimistic. You can definitely think of many more to panic about. And yes, a lot depends on the faith you have in Laporta. He’s not a businessman, he’s basically a lawyer and a politician, and, admittedly, that’s not necessarily a good sign. But if he’s humble enough to surround himself with smart people, if he doesn’t make the mistakes of the past, if he can make fans believe in his project, he can make it work.
Barça is not a recession-proof club and not too big to fail. But the truth is that it is very close.