Professional gambler Mark DeRosa was on a plane back from Atlantic City after last year’s Super Bowl, when he got a clear picture of what would turn out to be one of the best results of his career.
DeRosa believed Tom Brady would leave New England in the offseason and that Tampa Bay was one of the most likely landing points. Sportsbooks, however, disagreed and ranked the Buccaneers around 50-1 in their chances of knowing where Brady would play in the 2020 season. Bookmakers made Brady return to New England a favorite. heavy and with probabilities.
“Books were priced as if they were 75% likely to return [to New England]”DeRosa said.” I thought there was a 75% chance it wouldn’t come back, so the market was really far away. “
While in Atlantic City for the Super Bowl, DeRosa made two $ 500 bets with DraftKings on Brady playing with the Buccaneers, 50-1 and 40-1. Then, on the plane back to Florida, he decided he wanted to go down more to Tampa Bay to win the NFC and the Super Bowl the following season. He should convince his old college friend and betting partner, Zack White, that the Bucs were a good bet.
Tampa Bay had just finished a 7-9 campaign in which quarterback Jameis Winston threw 30 interceptions. It was the Buccaneers’ third losing season in a row, and they were again considered long throws, with Super Bowl odds in the 65-1 range.
“He had to talk to me a lot,” recalled White, a respected Las Vegas gambler. “His reasoning practically got Brady to go there.”
White asked DeRosa what they thought were the chances of Brady landing in Tampa Bay, “because if he doesn’t, that bet is pretty awful.”
DeRosa said he had a hunch, very reasoned, based on several signs indicating Brady was leaving New England. DeRosa recalled a 2018 ESPN story that highlighted the rift between Brady, Patriots coach Bill Belichick, and owner Robert Kraft. In August 2019, DeRosa read that Brady had put his Massachusetts mansion up for sale and thought it was significant that the sixth-ranked Super Bowl quarterback had left his contract for the first time in his career.
DeRosa believed that Tampa Bay, due to coach Bruce Arians’ dissatisfaction with Winston’s prone to turnover, a loaded list of players, the warm weather and the lack of state income taxes, was a of the few adjustments for Brady.
“The worst case scenario is that you have [Tampa Bay] 30-1 to win the NFC and 60-1 to the Super Bowl, and that’s just the market price, “DeRosa reasoned with White last February.” If it happens, they will be like 5-1 and 10-1, and I think it will happen. I don’t think I’ll be back. I think he’s going somewhere else. “
White was convinced and went to work in Las Vegas, placing several thousand dollars to the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl 65-1 and 60-1. Meanwhile, in Florida, DeRosa had been controlling the odds of New Jersey sports betting and saw the Borgata open the Bucs to 35-1 to win the NFC. DeRosa he immediately booked a return flight to Atlantic City and bet $ 8,000 in Tampa Bay to win the conference 35-1.
When DeRosa and White ended up betting, they had about $ 20,000 invested in the Bucs, as opposed to 65-1 to win the Super Bowl and 35-1 to win the NFC. They all took smaller positions on a few teams, DeRosa in the Los Angeles Chargers and White in the Saints, but their biggest investment was in the Bucs.
On March 20, Brady signed a two-year contract with the Buccaneers, the odds of the Super Bowl dramatically improved in sports betting. When the season began, Tampa Bay was around 10-1 to win the Super Bowl and 5-1 to win the NFC, as DeRosa had predicted.
In the middle of the season, things didn’t look great for the Bucs. They lost three of four in November, including a 38-3 loss to the Saints, to fall to 7-5.
“There was a bit of frustration,” White said with a laugh about Tampa Bay’s mid-season wear and tear, “but it’s the NFL, man, no one counts until the end.
“There was always so much closed value in these important money notes,” White added. “You could have closed a lot of profits before the season came even with the numbers we had.”
Each covered a bit of their risk by taking the Washington football team +9.5 in the playoffs ’divisional round against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay won by eight. For the most part, however, they stood firm and plan to do the same for the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers are 3-point contenders for the Kansas City Chiefs.
“I’m not able to cover,” DeRosa said.
Both in their late 30s, DeRosa and White attended Appalachian State together and have been betting professionally for over a decade. They’ve already made six-figure wins at the Bucs and are in a position to get the best scores of their career in any sport if Tampa Bay wins the Super Bowl.
“We had about $ 11,000 or so to win $ 400,000 in the NFC Championship,” DeRosa said. “And then we have another $ 8,000 or $ 9,000 to win the Super Bowl 60-1.
“Then, go Bucs.”