U.S. President Joe Biden wants to end the war in Yemen, but the conflict is unlikely to resurface soon, according to Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president of research at the Falcon Foundation for the Defense of Human Rights. Democracies.
“In fact, if anything I think, this is likely to make the conflict worse,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.
Biden announced last month that the U.S. would withdraw its support for the offensive against Houthi forces in Yemen.
Earlier administrations led by Donald Trump and Barack Obama supported the Saudi-led alliance in their intervention in the civil war in Yemen.
Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when Houthi rebels took control of the internationally recognized Yemeni capital’s Sanaa capital.
A year later, Saudi Arabia led a coalition of Sunni Arab states in support of the Yemeni government to expel the Houthis, a Shiite-majority Iran-backed militia.
We simply expect an Iran-backed militia to come to the table and act reasonably. Unfortunately, I think this is a wish.
Jonathan Schanzer
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
According to the United Nations, the war has already caused approximately 233,000 deaths, including more than 100,000 fatalities from indirect causes such as lack of food, health services and infrastructure.
Schanzer said the Biden measure will not help end the war in Yemen because the U.S. has no concessions to offer to the houthis, who now have fewer incentives than before to make commitments.
“What the Biden administration has done is that it has eliminated the military option for the United States, even through representation through the Saudis,” he said.
Diplomacy is the only option
The United States also removed Houthis from being designated as a foreign terrorist organization and removed them from the list of specially designated global terrorists.
“What’s left right now is diplomacy,” Schanzer said.
“The reality we face now is that we have taken all other leverage effects off the table and we are simply waiting for a militia backed by Iran to come to the table and act reasonably,” he said. . “Unfortunately, I think that’s a wish.”
He noted that the houthis have intensified the strikes even though the US special envoy to Yemen, Timothy Lenderking, has implored them to negotiate.
On March 7, 2021, smoke broke out in the residential area following airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition targeting Houthi’s military positions in Sana’a, Yemen.
Mohammed Hamoud | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Schanzer said Saudi Arabia’s continued military operations could be “one of the few levers” the United States could use in talks with Houthis.
However, he acknowledged that there is an aversion to involvement in the conflict. “It seems … like the Biden administration has bonded a bit,” he said.
There is unlikely to be any progress towards the end of the Yemen war for now, he said, noting the aggression of the Houthis.
“With the swarm drone attacks and ballistic missile attacks and other acts of violence that have taken place in the Saudi state, it is very, very difficult to imagine that the Saudis will want to re-mark their reprisals,” he said. he said. .
– CNBC’s Amanda Macias contributed to this report.