Biden’s first report of work in the United States to show the challenge ahead: the ecological week

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U.S. President Joe Biden is about to observe for the first time the labor market he inherited.

Economists expect the January jobs report to show a stagnant and still high unemployment rate (remaining at 6.7%), according to a Bloomberg poll ahead of Friday’s data. It is almost double the level before the pandemic occurred early last year.

Monthly data is expected to show a slight rise in hiring, compared to the loss of 140,000 jobs in December. Although the US economy has shown strength in areas such as housing and manufacturing in recent months, the labor market has struggled to boost.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pointed to the millions of unemployed Americans as a sign that the economic recovery still has a long way to go.

What Bloomberg Economics says:

“The divergent” K “track will be widely evident in the January jobs report, as sectors such as leisure, hospitality and restaurants / bars must witness significant and significant job losses. and that the economic situation of these displaced workers must certainly not be left unaddressed, a crucial point in the report on jobs will be to decipher the extent to which some parts of the economy continue to recover ”.

–Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger. For the full note, click here

Biden has called for an additional $ 1.9 trillion in financial aid to help offset the damage from the pandemic. If approved by Congress, it would deliver more additional unemployment benefits, state and local government aid, and additional direct payments to people.

This would increase the $ 900 billion package approved by lawmakers in December, which has provided some support to employees and businesses. However, the continuing threat of the virus and the agitated deployment of vaccines are expected to weigh on recruitment, especially in service industries such as catering and hospitality.

The U.S. Treasury will announce this week its latest debt needs and how it plans to finance them. And the week will also include a wave of Fed regional presidents talking about the job market and the economy, including Raphael Bostic of Atlanta, Loretta Mester of Cleveland and James Bullard of St. Louis. Louis.

Elsewhere, Asian PMIs provide the latest information on the state of recovery, while the euro area gross domestic product could herald the start of a double immersion recession. The central banks of the United Kingdom, India and Australia are among those meeting and the Canada jobs report must also be submitted.

Click here to see what happened last week and below is a summary of what will come to the global economy.

Asia

Manufacturing PMI reports from Asian countries will show the state of recovery in a region that has recently been driven by the effects of China’s strength. An official indicator of China manufacturing output released on Sunday fell a second month in January, although it remains comfortably in expanding territory.

From India The budget will be announced on Monday, likely to fall in spending as the government tries to chart a way out of the pandemic-induced fall. The central bank meets Friday.

South Korea’s January export data will shed early light on whether the momentum will recover world trade has slowed earlier this year as blockades limit activity in many major economies.

It is likely that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will decide whether to extend one state of emergency. It will weigh the extent to which current warnings contain infections against the economic damage of continuing for longer. Household spending figures in December are likely to show that consumers were already recovering spending before declaring the renewed emergency.

Finally, it’s a busy week for Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe. He will announce a political decision on Tuesday, deliver a speech on Wednesday and publish his quarterly statement on monetary policy on Friday, before this parliamentary committee grills it.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

With the Bank of England forecasting to release its current dose of monetary stimulus, attention will be focused on its assessment of the latest economic downturn and the viability of negative interest rates as a tool for relaxation. The BOE will likely support the measure, but hints that it is in no hurry to assume the costs of sub-zero debt.

Central banks in Poland, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Ghana, Mauritius and Egypt are also expected to keep rates on hold this week.

In terms of data, GDP for the fourth quarter since euro area it will probably show that the economy contracted, however a surprising resistance in Germany, Spain and France could mean that the region in general may not be as bad as feared. Sweden, Latvia, Serbia and the Czech Republic also publish output data.

Russia is expected to report on Monday that its economy shrank by 3.8% in 2020, a less dramatic success than many economies due to its relatively small service sector.

Latin America

Peru’s consumer price data on Monday in January should place the annual rate close to 2%. The central bank predicts that this year it will slow down to 1.6%.

In 2020, Colombia beat Peru to record the slowest annual inflation rate among the largest economies. The data released on Friday will show a slight rise, but will leave the headline figure still well below target. Analysts expect Chile’s economic activity figures released on Monday to turn negative as the uneven recovery from the recession has been slowing.

Brazilian export and import data are available on Monday afternoon. Surprisingly, trade plays a relatively modest role in Latin America’s largest economy, which is one of the least open among the group of 20 pairs. The Central Bank of Colombia publishes on Monday afternoon the minutes of the meeting of January 29, where political leaders kept their key rate to a record low: 1.75%.

Look for Brazil’s industrial production report on Tuesday to show a fourth monthly year-on-year increase for December. A fall in November would suggest that the pace of recovery is moderating.

– With the assistance of Malcolm Scott, Vince Golle, Benjamin Harvey, Robert Jameson and Alaa Shahine