President-elect Joe Biden hopes to reactivate Iran’s nuclear deal after taking office, but that task is only becoming increasingly daunting.
Driving the news: Iran announced today that it would begin enriching uranium to 20%, at a staggering distance from weapons grade levels, at its Fordow underground facilities.
- Hours later, Tehran announced that it had confiscated a South Korean-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, allegedly for pollution. This is another reminder to the world of Iran’s ability to disrupt a crucial maritime corridor.
- Meanwhile, the United States and its regional partners continue to fear possible Iranian retaliation a year after the US attack that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, as well as the latest assassination of Iran’s leading nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
The general picture
According to Biden, Iran’s nuclear acceleration and slow-moving regional tensions are consequences of President Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach following his withdrawal from the 2015 deal. Biden is ready to lift nuclear sanctions and return the United States to the agreement, if Iran fulfills it again.
- Incoming national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that after returning to the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA), Biden will continue follow-up talks to limit behavior. regional government of Iran.
- Sullivan said Iran’s ballistic missile program “should be on the table” in these negotiations.
It may seem like the frame is in place, as President Hassan Rouhani says, Iran is also willing to return to compliance if the US lifts its sanctions. But today’s enrichment announcement underscores how thorny the process will be.
- If Iran enriches significant amounts of uranium by up to 20%, its nuclear rupture time will become “very, very small,” says Ernest Moniz, who played a key role in negotiating the 2015 agreement. as Barack Obama’s energy secretary. “The key question is how much they earn.”
State of play
The move to 20% enrichment is part of a law – passed on Rouhani’s objections – that also calls for the suspension of UN nuclear inspections if sanctions on the oil and banking sectors are not lifted in February. iranians.
- That would be a “game changer” beyond any of the steps Iran has taken so far, Moniz says, because “then it’s getting harder and harder to argue that we know they’re not participating in an arms program.”
Iran has also demanded compensation for the damage of US sanctions, although Rouhani has shown some flexibility at this point.
- More difficult may be the insistence of Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif that Iran is unwilling to negotiate issues beyond its nuclear program, at least not before the US lifts sanctions.
What follows: Iran also has presidential elections scheduled for June, and a tough administration is expected to replace Rouhani’s.
- Returning to the deal after being burned by Trump is an extremely controversial proposal.
- “It’s probably the kind of easiest thing to do for an outgoing administration, as the JCPOA is not the most popular element in some political circles in Iran,” says Rob Malley, a former Obama adviser to the Middle East and now chairman of the International Crisis Group. The direction of the trip will finally be defined by Iran’s supreme leader, Malley adds.
Where are things: If Biden wants a deal with Rouhani, he will only have five months to get it.
The opposition
Biden will face fierce opposition to a speedy return to the agreement of Israel and the Gulf states, as well as Republicans and some Democrats in Congress.
What they say: Opponents argue that Biden has received a strong hand for Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign and that he should play carefully.
“It’s really an economic war that the United States is fighting Iran, “says Gérard Araud, former French ambassador to the United States (2014-2019) and permanent representative to the UN Security Council (2009-2014).” It is true that this is a lever in the United States. “
- There has already been a small amount of public comment from Israeli and Gulf officials discouraging Biden from returning to the 2015 deal and only then try to negotiate an agreement to address regional concerns.
- Sullivan’s argument is that the United States will be better positioned to negotiate these issues once Iran’s nuclear program is “back in a box.”
One of the most controversial points it will probably be a sequencing.
- Iran says it will return to compliance once the U.S. lifts sanctions, while Biden says it will lift sanctions once Iran returns to compliance.
- This will require Iran to take a number of technical measures, including sending enriched uranium out of the country, probably to Russia.
- The process could be completed in about four months, Moniz says, probably faster if Iran goes “all the way,” but slower in a staged process in which Iranian steps are combined with relief from U.S. sanctions.
The other side: The Trump administration has tried to block Biden’s path to the JCPOA, in part by accumulating sanctions on Iran over non-nuclear issues.
- Biden could lift these sanctions without congressional approval – and the Iranians could demand it – but the Iranian hawks hope the issue will become another internal political minefield.
What to see?
Iran’s recent nuclear acceleration, and his threat to expel the inspectors will probably be Biden’s main concern in the short term, and these acts are clearly intended to force him to move quickly.
Yes, but: “Some steps Iran could take could counteract that,” Malley adds. “I think there comes a point where more pressure could mean that the Biden administration will also change course.”
Flashback: European signatories to the JCPOA (France, Germany and the United Kingdom) worked desperately for the two years following Trump’s withdrawal to preserve the deal until the next U.S. election.
- Now, the candidate who managed to save the deal with Iran is a top priority two weeks from the oval office.
- But even he acknowledges that the path to follow is uncertain. Tony Blinken, elected by Biden as secretary of state, has said the US will work in partnership with Europe on Iran, regardless of whether or not Iran agrees to return to compliance.
European leaders and diplomats will try to facilitate dialogue between the U.S. and Iran, Araud says. But it recalls years of fruitless European attempts to negotiate with Iran before the Obama administration took up the issue.
The summary: “We knew from the beginning that the real problem was between the United States and Iran,” he says, “and that’s even more so.”