Biden’s rejection of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a “warning”

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – Presidential Press Secretary Joe Biden has sent a startling message to Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this week. Jen Psaki said at a press conference, using diplomatic language, that the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, especially that of the heir to the kingdom, is deteriorating.

“In Saudi Arabia I would say we have made it clear from the outset that we will recalibrate our relationship with Saudi Arabia,” Psaki said Tuesday from the White House.

On the question of whether Biden would speak to the Crown Prince, she replied, “Part of that goes back to the counterparty commitment. The president’s counterpart is King Salman, and I hope you have a conversation with him at an appropriate time. I don’t have a timeline. “

The appointments drew instant attention from regional analysts and foreign policy experts, as well as likely Gulf leaders, as the blatant disembodiment of the heir to the 35-year-old Saudi monarchy and, no doubt, the most powerful man in the region.

“Well, I think what Jen said, in fact, I know what he said is that the president would commit to his counterpart, and this his counterpart, is the king,” the spokesman for the spokesman said Wednesday. State Department, Ned Price.

Price added that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will work similarly with his counterpart, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

“President Biden has said we will review the entirety of this relationship to make sure it promotes interests and is respectable and respectful of the values ​​we bring to this partnership,” Price said.

“Of course, we know that Saudi is an important partner on many different fronts, regional security counterterrorism are only two,” he added.

“The disagreement with MBS represents a warning to Saudi Arabia,” Torbjorn Soltvedt, MENA chief analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, wrote Wednesday in an email note, referring to the Crown Prince for his initials. “It will be seen as a disapproval of MBS’s leadership, which has been characterized by unpredictable decision-making and a much less consultative approach than in the past.”

And the administration’s apparent intention to set aside the crown prince represents a dramatic departure from Trump’s White House, which made Saudi Arabia the former president’s first visit abroad, he signed important arms deals with the kingdom challenged opposition from Congress and refrained from criticizing the kingdom. on their human rights violations.

This should come as no big surprise, as Biden promised a tougher line against the oil-rich Islamic monarchy. During a primary debate in early 2020, Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia “the pariah they are.”

“This is not a surprising move, but it is bold and will hurt,” Michael Stephens, an analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CNBC. “There is no doubt that Psaki’s comments were addressed to the Crown Prince, even though he is to all intents and purposes the man in charge of the kingdom.”

Several scandals and crises from the kingdom since the Crown Prince came to power have been condemned not only by Democrats but also by Republicans.

According to a former Obama administration official, who spoke anonymously due to professional restrictions, “the Saudis in Washington are in the worst position they have ever been. They have just been blocked by Trump’s White House.” .

The Saudi government did not respond to requests for comment from CNBC.

Biden has already paused a major arms sale to the kingdom and other Gulf allies signed under the Trump administration and ordered an end to U.S. support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, which has created the which the UN calls the worst man-made humanitarian crisis.

And the kingdom was condemned internationally for the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 by state agents. American intelligence linked the death to the Crown Prince, which Riyadh strongly denies.

“With the ongoing war in Yemen, the crackdown on prominent members of the country’s political and business elite in 2017, the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 and the oil price war last year, the administration of Biden has not run out of raw materials to hold on to, ”Soltvedt wrote.

But how realistic is the goal of the Biden team to obviate the Crown Prince, who is also Minister of Defense, the next in line to the throne and who has been taking most of the major decisions of the kingdom?

According to Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the kingdom’s royal court, it is unrealistic at all.

“They can’t do anything if they don’t deal with MBS,” Shihabi told Politico. “The king works, but he’s very old. He’s the chairman of the board. He doesn’t get involved in day-to-day matters. Eventually, they’ll want to talk directly to MBS.”

King Salman, the monarch in power since 2015, is now 85 years old.

Verisk’s Soltvedt agrees. “King Salman is the head of state and ultimately holds the levers of power. But it is MBS who exercises direct control over the most important portfolios and institutions in the kingdom,” he wrote. “A change in Washington’s approach to its relationship with Saudi leadership will not change that.”

While the Biden administration is expected to give lower priority to the Gulf states than its predecessor did, they remain the main U.S. arms customers and regional counterterrorism partners, as well as suppliers of oil, although every year they are less so for the latter.

Thus, as long as Biden’s team points out a change, it will not mean a rupture in relations, many foreign policy experts believe.

“I think the most important thing to keep in mind is that, over the years, U.S. policy toward Saudi Arabia has been relatively consistent, regardless of which party has been in power,” said Tarek Fadlallah, CEO of Nomura in the Middle East.

“There will be a slightly different tone between this White House and the last White House,” Fadlallah said. “But I don’t think it’s consistent in terms of policy toward the region or policy toward Saudi Arabia.”

– CNBC Amanda Macias contributed to this report from Washington.