Russia threatens Ukraine’s borders, China sends increasingly nefarious signals over Taiwan, and Iran accelerates uranium enrichment to unprecedented levels.
The big picture: The nuclear program of Ukraine, Taiwan and Iran always appeared on the menu of possible crises that President Biden could face. But over the past few days, the lights have flickered red on all three fronts at once.
Driving the news: In the 24 hours that began last Sunday, an explosion shook Iran’s underground nuclear site at Natanz, 25 Chinese warplanes entered Taiwan’s air defense zone and Ukraine announced that the number of troops Russians accumulating in Crimea and on its eastern border had increased to 80,000.
Now Russia has gathered enough troops for a “limited military incursion,” CIA Director Bill Burns warned Wednesday.
- Moscow has avoided such open intervention in eastern Ukraine since the war began there in 2014, but it could now attack to try to delve deeper into Ukrainian territory or get a much-needed water source for occupied Crimea. .
- After a wave of phone calls from Washington to Kiev to support Ukraine, Biden called Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and proposed a summit to discuss Ukraine and other issues.
- The state of play: U.S. European Command Commander General Tod Wolters said Thursday there was a “low to medium” risk of a Russian invasion in the coming weeks.
The threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan it is less urgent, but carries a much greater risk of plunging the U.S. into a direct military confrontation.
- Beijing has repeatedly threatened to take control of the island by force. Meanwhile, Biden has continued the long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity,” with the United States indicating that it is willing to defend Taiwan without explicitly committing to do so.
- After Monday’s air raid, the largest to date, Biden sent three former senior U.S. officials to Taiwan, an action Beijing described as “playing with fire.” China reacts furiously to any gesture that treats Taiwan (a thriving democracy and a global technology center) as an independent country.
- The state of play: Admiral Philip Davidson, the commander of the Indo-Pacific command of the United States, has said that there is a real and growing risk of China invading in the coming years, but that the most worrying scenario in the short term is an “accident. or a calculation error “leading to scaling.
After the apparent act of Israeli sabotage in Natanz, Iran announced that it would begin enriching uranium to 60%, approaching the levels needed for a nuclear weapon.
- Both the attack and the Iranian response have threatened to derail negotiations aimed at saving the 2015 nuclear deal.
- The state of play: Talks resumed on Thursday in Vienna, but again on Tehran’s top leader Ali Khamenei implicit that Iran could soon move away from the table. If talks falter and Iran continues to accelerate enrichment, there are likely to be other flash points.
What to see: Almost all that is missing from this crisis cocktail is another North Korean missile test.