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Almost all prediction models now show a slight shift north of our northeastern storm track, locating the center of low pressure over Cape May, New Jersey (rather than over open waters to the south and east). . This is remarkable warmer solution for us, forcing the snow-snow line further north during the storm peak Wednesday evening.
The wiggle is no reason to panic, drastically drop the snow forecast and / or call it a bust. However. It simply reinforces what I’ve been saying all along: this is a very complicated and sensitive track prediction, subject to adjustments as the storm approaches and swings and swings. Now it’s even more “boom or bust”.
You’ll notice that I’ve slightly decreased the total snow on my last map, a move I was fully expecting for the southern half of the state. I’ll take a closer look at the trend for upcoming model cycles, before issuing a final call forecast early Wednesday morning.
It will be a very different storm at opposite ends of the state. Still, no matter how much the numbers are at stake, it will continue to be an unpleasant storm with very messy weather and road conditions, strong winds and coastal flooding. There will be travel headaches, especially during rush hours Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. There will be school and business closures. There will be power outages. There will be flooding of tidal waters.
I’m also worried that weather conditions will blow down faster than expected on the front of the storm. Wednesday evening trips could be very sloppy, as the initial rainfall for most will be straight snow. And I changed the time of maximum impacts a little earlier, around 7pm to midnight.
North Jersey (orange)
Yes, we still expect cold temperatures, double-digit snow totals, and major disruptions on trips in the northern half to the third of New Jersey. I slightly reduced the snow levels, now showing more than 10 inches instead of 12 or more. I contemplated putting an upper limit of 14 “or 16” or even 18 “in this orange outline. But I’m much more comfortable keeping it semi-ambiguous for now, leaning toward the lower end of the” digits doubles “.
However, the shift to the north does even more snowfall of more than 20 inches is unlikely to occur May bought into this idea.
I worry that the mixing line will drift north to the interstate highway 78 corridor, destroying snow accumulations. This is the most important factor I will see as our final orientation comes into play.
Initial snow in North Jersey will arrive between 3pm and 5pm on Wednesday. Steep, icy roads and poor visibility can become a big problem during rush hour. The heaviest snow accumulation (the one that accumulates the fastest) will arrive a little later, between 7pm and 1am. An icy mixture of snow, sleet and icy rain can seep in during this time period. Things will start to calm down just before sunrise (6 am-ish) on Thursday, with the final flakes falling around 10 am
Expect gusts of wind at about 35 mph during the height of the storm.
Central and Southwest Jersey (purple)
Making a “perfect” prediction here is literally impossible: pinpointing these snow and ice totals goes beyond the current science of meteorology. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the “boom or bust” area, where there will be a very tight slope appreciable snow on the ground i almost nothing. Here I have given you my best guess, taking into account our most recent forecast information.
Initial precipitation through this battlefield area will be probably it will fall like snow between 1pm and 3pm. Snow will continue to fall during the night journey, with some accumulation, reduced visibility and sloppy road conditions. Then, around seven in the afternoon, a warmer air intake will produce a transition to rain and / or sleet. Light ice formation is a possibility. And part of this beautiful accumulation of snow from before will be wiped out. At the back of the storm, a good turn towards the snow is a good bet, after 3am The final snowflakes should fall on Thursday at midnight around 9am.
Gusts of about 40 mph will be possible at the peak of the storm. Moderate coastal flooding is expected Thursday morning along Raritan Bay, in the Atlantic Ocean, and subsequent bays and tributaries. Small coastal flooding can occur along the Delaware River and Delaware Bay.
South Jersey and The Shore (green)
Well, I hope you like the rain. Because with temperatures rising up to the 1940s along the Jersey shore, this is what you will get.
There will be a narrow window here at the beginning and end of the storm system for some winter mix and snow. But snow accumulations will be very light, just in case. Rain between 1 and 2 inches is expected.
The first drops of rain (and snowflakes) will bubble from the southwest between 1pm and 3pm on Wednesday. Roads appear mostly wet during night commutes, although there may be some slippery and slippery spots. Heavy rains develop on Wednesday evening after 6 p.m., causing problems with visibility, traction and stagnation. There could be some mixture with snow or sleet, especially in the north and west you are. As temperatures drop in the early hours of Thursday morning, around three in the morning, a transition to all snow is possible. (But it’s not a guarantee.) Accumulations will be very difficult, with such wet ground. The final drops and flakes are expected to come off the coast around 10 a.m. Thursday.
Wind gusts above 50 mph are possible, as the intensity of the storms reaches its maximum on Wednesday evening, especially on the immediate coast. These fierce winds will drive water to the Jersey shore, which will rise to about 2 feet of storm surge. Widespread moderate flooding of tidal waterways is likely to occur during Thursday morning high tide cycles.
There are less than 24 hours left to finish …
We hope this gives you an idea of our current position. The next weather blog update will be posted in the early hours of Wednesday morning, around 7 p.m. It will include our latest call for snow totals, timeline and impacts.
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist at Townsquare Media, New Jersey. Keep it going Facebook o Twitter to get the latest weather forecasts and updates in real time.