Newsom faced the first withdrawal election in California in 18 years. At one point, weeks before the election, there seemed to be enough danger for Democrats to decide to send President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to campaign for it.
Republicans sought a repeat in 2003, when actor Arnold Schwarzenegger drew support across ideological lines and voters decided to start the then governor. Gray Davis. This time, however, the party’s main candidate, speaking radio host Larry Elder, stayed much closer to conservative orthodoxy, making it difficult to attract the kind of broad bipartisan support needed for a Republican Party candidate wins intense blue in California.
And his long history of incendiary comments – combined with the recovery system that virtually guaranteed Elder to become governor if Newsom was remembered – to energize those who had largely decided on the election and perhaps would not have voted.
A strict pandemic policy gets a big win
Newsom’s aggressive actions to curb the spread of the coronavirus (the same restrictions that helped drive the withdrawal election) gained a major boost Tuesday night, showing Democrats across the country that a strict pandemic policy can be a good policy.
Newsom agreed with this in his comments on election night to reporters, stating that while people voted “no”, that vote meant yes, “yes to science, yes to vaccines … yes to end this pandemic “.
This, more than any lesson coming out of California, is likely to permeate other elections later this year and in 2022, helping to support Democrats who have pushed for strict coronavirus measures to curb the continued spread of the variant. of the Delta in the face of a small but vocal opposition.
Newsom opted for its campaign in its strict Covid measures, using them to attack Elder as a pandemic lax, contrasting with the Republican governors of Texas and Florida and running alongside the new vaccine requirements that Biden went announce a few days before election day.
“We saw the rise of the Delta as a real turning point in this campaign,” said Sean Clegg, Newsom’s chief strategist. “What Delta made clear and clear was the stakes in these elections when a party has basically become an anti-science, anti-vaccine and anti-public health party.”
A Newsom Vs. Elder 2022?
With the same breath as he acknowledged Newsom’s defeat of the retreat on stage Tuesday night, Elder hinted at another race next year, at the governor’s race normally scheduled in California.
“We may have lost the battle, but we will win the war,” Elder said.
This could be a headache for California Republicans.
The party had other options, including former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, that might have been less unpleasant to moderate, Democratic voters. But state conservatives rallied around Elder, the radio announcer with a long history of incendiary comments Newsom took. His campaign framed the race as an election between two candidates, one of whom was far out of step with California’s overwhelming Democratic majority, rather than a simple referendum up or down on the governor.
Still, Elder, who if elected would be the first black governor in California, has galvanized conservatives into a state where Republicans are virtually powerless. He could be a prominent voice in the Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections.
“As a former radio host, let me say this: stay tuned,” Elder said Tuesday night.
California lessons are limited
Many of the lessons Democrats across the country can learn from the defeat of the retreat are far less definitive, complicated so much by the fact that that state, with its 2-1 advantage for Democrats, doesn’t look like it. much to most key races of 2022 and reminiscent of elections, by nature, create unique electoral conditions.
Newsom advisers were quick to argue that National Democrats would be right to follow suit, urging them to link their opponents to Trump, as the governor did, and to nationalize races to get the bets.
“Larry Elder is here in the withdrawal vote, but a version of Larry Elder will be in the nationwide vote,” said Juan Rodriguez, Newsom’s campaign manager. “And that’s an important lesson for Democrats and how they lean on the message we’ve made.”
Democrats tasked with winning key races in 2021 and 2022 were less certain that California would provide them with a roadmap, given the state’s unique political composition.
“It’s very difficult to see real inferences that can be made from the California results,” said one of Virginia’s most important Democrats, where Terry McAuliffe is currently running for a second term as governor. it belongs to Covid’s response and to the Republican brand. ”
There is no talk of Elder fraud
California had seemed poised to become the latest addition to former President Donald Trump’s “Big Lie,” with Republicans showing signs of denying the reality of the election result.
Elder had warned of “cheaters” in the voting process. His campaign had launched a website for those who had trouble voting or saw evidence of fraud to submit affidavits. And on stage on Tuesday night, before Elder spoke, speakers questioned the legitimacy of the electoral process.
“Some TV stations say it’s running out: it’s too early. It’s too early. They just count the ballots. They still have to count the actual ballots; the working people who go to the polls every day,” he said. former Republican Gov. Abel Maldonado.
Instead, it seems that the talk about election fraud was simply a way to energize conservative voters who have bought Trump’s lies.
Elder appeared to end this talk on stage. He made no mention of election fraud. And he interrupted supporters who were booing Newsom. “Let’s be kind in defeat,” he said.
The huge cost of Recall prompts a reform
According to the state Department of Finance, the price of the California withdrawal election was $ 276 million.
Ultimately, the state’s strange laws allowed elections to be held that were not about to be held, at a huge expense, just 14 months before Newsom had been at the polls for re-election anyway.
Along the way, he pushed for calls to reform the withdrawal process, which can be triggered by a petition signed by 12% of voter turnout in the state’s last government elections, for whatever reason.
“A $ 276 million waste just to reaffirm the 2018 results with an election coming in 2022,” California Assembly Vice President Kevin Mullin said on Twitter Wednesday night.
Mullin said the reforms should include elevating the lieutenant governor to the position of chief executive of the state if a governor is successfully recalled, rather than having voters choose a replacement in the same vote.
The Newsom campaign urged voters to vote “no” on whether they should remember it, and then leave the second question blank, who should replace it if it was to be remembered. This strategy seemed problematic when polls showed a narrow race with no viable Democratic candidate if Newsom was recalled. But it ultimately helped the Newsom campaign turn the contest into a face-to-face with Elder.