Californians have been voting early for weeks in the election to remember Gov. Gavin Newsom.
But it’s unclear how long it will take to get a definitive answer on whether to keep his job.
Depending on the number of early ballots and the number of face-to-face votes on Tuesday, the math data could be clear in a few hours after the polls close at 8 p.m., Pacific time, election experts say. But if the race is tighter than expected, weeks could pass as the count lengthens.
Attempts to remember are a fact of the political life of California governors. But they don’t usually go to the polls and Californians have only gone to the polls again to determine whether the top state official should be removed. It was in 2003, when Governor Gray Davis was removed and replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger. Since then, the state’s rules and electorate have changed substantially.
Due to security concerns stemming from the coronavirus pandemic, ballot boxes were mailed to all 22 million registered and active voters in the state in the 2020 election. Voters can return completed ballots by mail , deposit them in safe boxes, vote in advance in person or vote on Tuesday at a polling station.
Nearly 40 percent of registered voters have already voted, but many Republicans have indicated they plan to vote in person, citing – without evidence – a concern that Democratic-dominated state election officials are manipulating their ballots. Post-election studies in 2020 found that the system had worked smoothly, without any systemic voter fraud.
Early Democratic votes outnumbered Republican ones by two, with an overwhelming majority of voters from both parties telling pollsters they plan to vote along the party line. Newsom is a Democrat, as are about 46 percent of the electorate.
But that margin is expected to narrow when Republican voters – who make up less than a quarter of registered voters – go to the polls.
The vote count is notoriously slow in California because the state is very massive. The law for these elections allows county officials to open and process early ballots as they arrive, but those results cannot be shared with the public until the polls close, said Jenna Dresner, a spokeswoman for the state secretary of state. California.
California has 58 counties and each processes their ballots differently. The results usually reach later in larger counties, such as Los Angeles County. Officials have 30 days to complete their official canvas and must vote by post with the postage stamp on election day a week to arrive. The certified count is not expected until October 22nd.
There should be a significant partial count in a couple of hours after closing surveys in some key areas, such as the Bay Area and Orange County. And electoral math in California should offer some solid clues about the outcome, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., a nonpartisan provider of election data.
Because so many voters are Democrats, he said, the higher turnout, the more likely Mr. Newsom will be to overcome the withdrawal. If the overall turnout reaches 60%, he said, Mr Newsom’s proposed removal is almost mathematically impossible.