The millionaire question that many are asking after the recent coup in Guinea is: Can a military coup be given again in Nigeria? Recall that on Sunday, September 5, 2021, Alpha Conde, the 83-year-old president of the country, was removed from office by copyists led by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, 41. They cited corruption and bad government among the reasons that led them to take power. Many political observers believe, however, that amending Guinea’s constitution in 2019 to pave the way for Conde, who was Guinea’s first democratically elected president, to challenge his third term, was part of the immediate causes of his forceful withdrawal. He decided to continue in place of his predecessor, Lansana Conte (a man Conde fought hard and long to remove), who abolished the terms of office and age in the presidency in 2001 and died in office in 2008.
A reality report conducted on September 8, 2021 by the British Broadcasting Corporation online news reported that a study by two US researchers, Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne, identified more than 200 coups in the United States. ‘Africa since the 1950s. About half of these have been successful, defining themselves as lasting more than seven days. Burkina Faso, in West Africa, has reportedly had the most successful coups, with seven and only one failure. Powell says this is not surprising given the instability that African countries experienced in the years after independence. “African countries have had common conditions for coups, such as poverty and poor economic performance. Ndubuisi Christian Ani, of the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa, says popular uprisings against long-standing dictators have provided an opportunity for the return of coups in Africa.
According to the BBC map of the countries with the highest number of coups in Africa since 1952, Sudan tops the list with 15, followed by Burundi with 11. Ghana and Sierra Leone have had 10 feet, while the island of the Comoros has had nine. Nigeria, Mali, Guinea Bissau, Republic of Benin and Burkina Faso tied at eight each. The Republic of Niger and Chad have each staged seven coups.
In a Sept. 13, 2021, analysis by an associate professor at York University, Remi Adekoya, for CNN, “Why the Blows Are Returning to Africa,” the scholar noted that at first postcolonial decades when the coups were rampant, African coup leaders almost always offered the same reasons for overthrowing governments: corruption, mismanagement, poverty. According to the report, the Afrobarometer research network conducted surveys in 19 African countries that showed six out of ten respondents said corruption was on the rise in their country (the figure was 63% in Guinea), while two out of every three claim that their governments are fighting this badly. In addition, 72% believe that ordinary citizens “risk retaliation or other negative consequences” if they denounce corruption to the authorities, a sign that Africans believe that their public institutions not only participate, but also actively defend corrupt systems.
When it comes to poverty, an already tragic situation has worsened thanks to the fragile economies of Africa, which suffered from the coronavirus pandemic. One in three people is now unemployed in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy. The same goes for South Africa, the most industrialized African nation. It is now estimated that the number of extremely poor people in sub-Saharan Africa has exceeded 500 million, half the population.
One of the key reasons for the coups in Africa is the “closure” of political leaders. Many of the leaders have had to play with the constitutional provisions to extend their stay in office. According to a report by the African Center for Strategic Studies on May 17, 2021, entitled “Breaking deadlines weakens governance in Africa,” the think tank said Africa has seen a reversal in the rules. term limit since 2015, as leaders from 13 countries had evaded or monitored the further weakening of the time limit restrictions that had been set. The countries are: Algeria, Burundi, Chad, Comoros, Ivory Coast and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Others are Egypt, Guinea, the Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Togo and Uganda.
The report further stated that, “The lack of effective tenure limits has resulted in Africa having ten leaders who have ruled for more than 20 years and two family dynasties that have been in power for more than 50 years.” In Gabon, there is the Bongo dynasty that has been in operation for 53 years; in Togo, the Eyadema dynasty is 53 years old; Equatorial Guinea President Teodoro Obiang has been in power for 41 years, while Cameroonian Paul Biya has been in power for 38 years. King Mswati III of Eswatini and President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda have been in power for 34 years each. Before Idris Déby, 68, was assassinated by the rebels on April 20, 2021, he was president of Chad for 30 years. Isaias Afwerk, an Eritrean, has been in power for 27 years, while Denis Sassou Nguesso, of the Republic of Congo, has been president for 23 years. Djibouti’s Ismail Omar Gwelleh has led his country for 21 years in the same way, King Mohammed VI of Morocco. Paul Kagame, meanwhile, has led Rwanda for 20 years and still counts.
The report went on to say that the eight African countries facing civil strife (excluding insurgencies by militant Islamist groups) are those without a mandate limit and that of the ten African countries that are the largest source of Africa’s 32 million refugees. and of internally displaced populations, seven lack time limits. They are very instructive!
What is clear is that coups pose a serious threat to the democratic gains that African countries have made in recent decades. Worryingly, research shows that many Africans are increasingly stopping believing that elections can get the leaders they want. Surveys conducted by CNN in 19 African countries in 2019/20 showed that only 4 out of 10 respondents (42%) believe that elections work well to ensure that “MPs reflect the opinion of voters” and “allow voters eliminate insufficient leaders “. In other words, less than half believe that elections guarantee representativeness and accountability, key ingredients of functional democracies. According to the survey, in 11 countries surveyed regularly since 2008, the belief that elections allow voters to eliminate insufficient leaders has dropped by 11% among citizens. It’s not that Africans no longer want to choose their leaders through elections, but simply now many believe their political systems are at stake.
Fifteen of the 20 countries that exceed the 2021 fragile states index are in Africa, including countries such as Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Somalia and South Sudan, as well as larger nations such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo. , Ethiopia (which has experienced violent internal conflicts for close to a year) and Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa.
While Nigeria has been fortunate to have six general elections and 22 years of uninterrupted civilian rule in this fourth Republic that began in 1999, it will be presumptuous to think that it will never be possible to stage a coup again in the country. The indices and indicators that led to the first coup on January 15, 1966 are still very much present: corruption, nepotism, violent elections, poverty, unemployment, disunity, and insecurity. The 2020 World Terrorism Index published by a group called Vision of Humanity says Nigeria is the third most affected country by terrorism. The truth is that Nigerians neither enjoy security nor well-being, according to the country’s 1999 Constitution in section 14 (2) (b), which is the main goal of the government.
To avoid another military adventurism in Nigerian politics, it is imperative that the political class behaves and doubles the variables highlighted above as drivers of the government’s military takeover. The upcoming 2023 elections should be significantly better and more credible than all of the previous ones. There must be a substantial improvement in the standard of living of citizens and not in the cost of living. Corruption must also be significantly reduced in politics and governance.
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