The presidential candidacy has already cost Joe Biden at least one friend. Already in the Obama era, Biden spent tens of hours with Chinese President Xi Jinping. On one occasion, they ate noodles at a Beijing restaurant with Biden’s granddaughter, and Xi said Biden was an “old friend.” Until May 2019, Biden insisted that China’s communist leaders “are not bad.”
But it can change a lot in a couple of years. In an attempt to show his harshness on China, Biden began describing Xi as “a thug who, in fact, has a million Uyghurs … concentration camps.” As president, Biden says he will bring together “a united front of friends and partners to challenge China’s abusive behavior.”
But is the president-elect really too soft on Beijing to face Xi? Could he prove that the critics were wrong?
There is no shortage of possible “friends and couples”. China’s neighbors, such as Taiwan, Japan and India, are alarmed by Beijing’s growing military assertiveness. And in countries like Myanmar, where China is building roads, pipelines and power plants, there has been a popular backlash against what locals see as a violation of national sovereignty.
Chinese diplomacy is also exacerbating the problems. Take Australia, where Beijing has invested money in the influence of the country’s elites, from trade deals to think tanks. In the last two years, the mood has changed abruptly: Australia has tightened foreign investment security rules and increased defense spending in the Indo-Pacific.
When the Australian government called for an international investigation into the origins of the new coronavirus, China’s Foreign Ministry described it as “shocking” as “Australia was supposed to be a good friend”.
Britain has seen a similar transformation rapidly. Five years ago, London was Europe’s main advocate for committing to Beijing. But last year, the Boris Johnson administration put new barriers to Chinese investment, citing security concerns.
Meanwhile, at the United Nations, Xi had managed to stifle criticism until last October, when 39 countries joined a statement against Beijing’s rights violations. China’s record has always been appalling, but in the last year it has become undeniable: images of millions of Hong Kong citizens protesting cannot be forgotten, followed by the massive arrests of opposition figures . Nor are the inexpressible images of Uighur Muslims loaded, bandaged, and tied to trains.
And this is before the cover-ups of COVID-19. Even in relatively friendly regions of China, such as Latin America, there has been public anger against Xi’s party for its role in the pandemic. A Pew poll found that China’s “unfavorable opinion” “has skyrocketed over the past year,” from Canada to the Netherlands and South Korea.
In theory, then, Biden should be able to build his “united front.” In practice, it will be more difficult. Last month, the European Union ignored warnings from U.S. officials, including a senior adviser to Biden, and signed a trade agreement with China. (Xi happily described it as an agreement between “the two major powers in the world”). EU leaders may view China as a dangerous rival, but in the end they needed business opportunities, even if that means alienating Washington and keeping Xi’s mother from atrocities.
When it comes to China’s business practices, then, Biden may find that his “friends and colleagues” evaporate. It could be more successful just by implementing Trump’s “first-phase” trade deal. Outgoing trade representative Robert Lighthizer argues that the United States is in a good position to “stay” [China’s] feet on fire ”in its promises of fair practices and purchase commitments.
Biden’s “united front” will be more achievable in terms of security, where it is expected to keep existing alliances quiet, such as “the Quad”, an informal partnership with India, Japan and Australia and the network. to share “Five Eyes” information. .
But it is on human rights that there is obviously an openness to international cooperation. China is committed to respecting Hong Kong’s autonomy. Biden could lead the pressure to keep that promise, perhaps through coordinated international sanctions against Chinese officials.
It could also push Congress to legislate against supply chains linked to Uighur internment camps. And since Beijing vetoed any attempt by international tribunals to investigate the camps, Biden could authorize U.S. courts to rule.
It would be a drastic move. But if the president-elect really believes what he says (that his lifelong friend was overseeing a “genocide”), it’s hard to see how he could do anything less.
Dan Hitchens writes from London. Twitter: @DDHitchens