I was sent as high commissioner to Ottawa when telegen Justin Trudeau led his Liberal party to victory in September 2015. He had revived his party’s fortunes on his own, ousting the formidable Conservative incumbent Stephen Harper who had been in the saddle for 9 years. years, with a promise of change. He seemed to have the Midas touch and was unable to do any harm.
How the shine wears out! During the only debate in English between the leaders of five prominent political parties on September 9, Mr. Trudeau was at the reception of all spheres. He diverted specific questions and it was difficult to justify his decision to call mid-term polls in hopes of extending his term for two more years.
Perhaps he was inspired by his father, Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, who similarly opted for the quick polls in 1974 and managed to form a majority government. However, young Trudeau overlooked a “minor” detail. The nation is on the cusp of the fourth wave of the dreaded Covid-19 pandemic.
Why did Mr. Trudeau recommend the dissolution of the House of Commons? There is some background in order. The 2019 elections did not go well for the prime minister. The conservative opposition under the desolate Andrew Scheer won more popular votes than the Liberals, although it could not become even the largest party given the configuration of the constituencies (constituencies). The Liberals lost their majority, but emerged as the largest party and relied on smaller parties such as the Quebec Bloc (BQ) and the NDP (National Democratic Party) to gain support, which of course came with pilots.
Trudeau was determined to regain his majority even though the political parties tired of the polls were careful not to shake the Liberal ship. But by now, public opinion was turning sour due to the perception that the government had been slow in managing the Covid-19 outbreak. A huge country, with a tiny population of 38 million, saw the number of daily afflictions increase from 1,700 in April to 4,000 in October and from 10,000 in December 2020.
Canada had intriguingly contracted 400 million doses against a requirement of less than 80 million, but was facing delays in receiving shipments when Trudeau called Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February 2021 for emergency supplies. Half a million units were made available with clearance that caused the Canadian leader to tweet that if the world were to conquer Covid-19, “it would be significantly because of India’s tremendous pharmaceutical capacity and the leadership of Prime Minister Modi in sharing this ability with the world “.
Despite initial hiccups, 73.77% of Canadians have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine and 67.80% have been fully vaccinated as of September 4, 2021, which is one of the highest in the world. Still, there is unexpected resistance from young adults in the 18-29 age group, which is a tricky factor if the fourth wave encompasses Canada.
Canada tried to contain the pandemic through complete or partial closures and a number of measures like other nations, which led to the closure of small businesses. Employees were laid off and unemployment grew. The Prime Minister perceived a great opportunity to win hearts and minds by opening the coffers of government. Some eight million unemployed and underemployed residents (including noncitizens) received up to $ 2,000 a month in financial aid. Attendance was so generous that a large percentage of beneficiaries stopped looking for work or refused to do jobs that paid less than distribution. As a result, companies gradually began to suffer, severe labor shortages were reported, inflation rose, and the fiscal deficit reached all-time highs.
During the debate, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole effectively handed the screws to the prime minister noting that the government was asking for $ 424 million every day. The usual abstention across the country is that Mr. Trudeau wasted billions of Canadian dollars in his effort to buy a majority and took advantage of a health crisis.
“Canada’s budget deficit during the 2020/21 fiscal year increased to $ 314 billion ($ 260.115 billion) from a deficit of $ 21.777 billion the previous year,” Reuters reports, while revenue fell 10.4% “. This is the highest deficit since World War II. Canada with a GDP of $ 1.74 trillion cannot afford this burden. Big companies and people earning more than two hundred thousand dollars a year fear the consequences.
There is a palpable rage among the citizens that they have been given a totally unnecessary survey. So much so that gravel was thrown at the prime minister last week, something unprecedented in the country that prides itself on holding peaceful and civilized elections. Fortunately, all political parties immediately condemned the incident.
A recent Angus Reid Institute poll indicated a drop in Trudeau’s popularity among voters of all ages and genders, including women who have been his staunch supporters. The American editor of The Telegraph, Nick Allen, writes:[Critics] to see him as a very privileged person who doesn’t quite understand the lives of ordinary Canadians. ”
Either way, Trudeau remains a favorite of ethnic minorities in Canada, in which he has invested heavily even at the expense of displeasing the white majority. About 2 million people of Indian descent (IOP) live in Canada, representing 5.6% of the country’s population. Most of them, including 80% of Sikhs, have traditionally supported liberals.
The outgoing house has 22 PIO MPs and three ministers. Canadians and Indians are prominent in all walks of life, especially in politics. Indian students have been heading to Canada. Estimated at 220,000, they are the largest segment among the country’s international students.
Canadian pension funds with a combined corpus of close to $ 1 trillion have invested heavily in India and have already invested more than C $ 50 billion. Our economies are complementary: more than 1,000 Canadian companies operate in India, and a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, which is in the process, can give a much-needed boost to our economic ties. As such, there is significant interest in the Canadian election and Trudeau’s future in India.
The prime minister can still turn the tables on the opposition. It had surprised experts in emerging as the biggest party, challenging predictions. In recent days, the Conservatives’ meager 3% advantage over the Liberals has begun to wane. If turnout is as low as expected (it was 66% last time), it would be to Trudeau’s advantage, as committed Liberals will go out to vote anyway.
He would not know if he would make his late father proud or succumb like British Prime Minister Theresa May, who had similarly bet on his office calling for quick votes, before the morning of September 21st. The predominant wisdom is that the gentleman has a slight advantage over the Conservatives, with a majority eluding him again. This would further erode his position, encourage opposition and perhaps start the countdown to another general election in 12 to 18 months. That said, democracies should never underestimate the wisdom of the common man, who often makes the last laugh.
The author is sent to South Korea and Canada and official spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the views of this publication.
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